Analyst Ratings February 24, 2026

Wolfe Research Starts Coverage of Centessa, Assigns Outperform and $40 Target

Analyst highlights ORX750 as a potential leading orexin-2 agonist; Phase 2 readout in Q1 2026 seen as a key catalyst

By Leila Farooq CNTA
Wolfe Research Starts Coverage of Centessa, Assigns Outperform and $40 Target
CNTA

Wolfe Research has begun coverage of Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) with an outperform rating and a $40 price target, citing the company's ORX750 orexin-2 agonist as a potential best-in-class candidate and projecting more than $3 billion in peak U.S. sales. Centessa is approaching a Phase 2 data release for higher doses in the first quarter of 2026, and other firms including Piper Sandler and TD Cowen continue to offer supportive ratings. The stock has shown strong year-to-date performance but may be trading above intrinsic value according to InvestingPro Fair Value data.

Key Points

  • Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Centessa with an outperform rating and a $40 price target; current share price is $26.65 and market cap is $3.72 billion.
  • ORX750 is highlighted as a potential best-in-class orexin-2 agonist, with Wolfe projecting over $3 billion in peak U.S. sales and a possible 40% to 50% share-price upside if Phase 2 data meet expectations.
  • Centessa is preparing Phase 3 trials for ORX750 and expects additional Phase 2 higher-dose data in Q1 2026; Piper Sandler and TD Cowen also maintain positive ratings on the stock.

Analyst initiation and valuation

Wolfe Research has opened coverage on Centessa Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:CNTA) with an outperform rating and established a price objective of $40.00. At the time of the report the stock was trading at $26.65 and the company carried a market capitalization of $3.72 billion. Independent analyst targets for the company span from $30 to $62, reflecting a broad range of expectations across the sell-side.

ORX750 identified as lead asset

The note singles out Centessa's ORX750 program as a possible best-in-class therapy in the orexin-2 agonist class. Wolfe Research estimates ORX750 could deliver in excess of $3 billion in peak annual sales within the U.S. The firm also pointed to a competitive environment in which multiple orexin-2 agonists have demonstrated robust late-stage clinical results, and it positioned Centessa's asset as a contender within that cohort.

Upcoming data and potential share impact

Centessa expects to present additional Phase 2 results for higher dose cohorts in the first quarter of 2026. Wolfe Research expressed a constructive view on that upcoming dataset and projected that a favorable Phase 2 outcome could drive a 40% to 50% increase in the company's share price. The firm framed the impending readout as a material near-term catalyst for the equity.

Market positioning and recent performance

The stock has returned 63% over the past year, reflecting significant investor interest. At the same time, InvestingPro commentary flags CNTA as a highly volatile security. InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment suggests the stock may be trading above its intrinsic valuation at current levels, a point that introduces a valuation caveat to the bull case.

Broader clinical and trial developments

Separately, Centessa has shared preclinical data at the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology meeting indicating that its OX2R agonist could have effects on mood symptoms and wakefulness in major depressive disorder. The company is preparing to launch Phase 3 trials for ORX750 targeted at narcolepsy type 1, narcolepsy type 2, and idiopathic hypersomnia.

Sell-side view and peer commentary

Piper Sandler has reaffirmed an Overweight rating on Centessa and kept its price target at $38.00, noting the expectation that the upcoming trials will act as important catalysts. TD Cowen continues to carry a Buy rating, arguing the recent pullback could present a buying opportunity. TD Cowen also referenced early Phase 2a data that suggest potential dose-dependent efficacy for the ’750 program.

Leadership transition

Centessa announced a change in chief executive leadership: Mario Alberto Accardi, the founder of the company’s Orexin Program, will succeed Saurabh Saha as CEO effective January 1, 2026. Dr. Saha will move into an advisory capacity, and Dr. Accardi will join the company’s Board of Directors.


This article summarizes analyst coverage, clinical program timing, sell-side perspectives, and recent corporate developments for Centessa Pharmaceuticals, reflecting information provided by research firms, company announcements, and InvestingPro analytics.

Risks

  • Valuation concern: InvestingPro's Fair Value analysis indicates the stock may be overvalued at current market levels, introducing downside risk for equity investors.
  • Clinical and development uncertainty: The anticipated Phase 2 data in Q1 2026 are pivotal; negative or inconclusive results would undermine the upside scenario and affect biotech and healthcare market sentiment.
  • High volatility: Historical stock volatility noted by InvestingPro increases trading risk and could lead to sharp price swings, impacting portfolios with exposure to biotech equities.

More from Analyst Ratings

Freedom Capital nudges up MDU Resources target as utility businesses drive gains Feb 24, 2026 BofA Maintains Buy on Eli Lilly, Sees Little U.S. GLP-1 Impact from Novo Price Move Feb 24, 2026 Benchmark Lifts SGHC Price Target After Fiscal 2025 Beat; Buy Rating Reiterated Feb 24, 2026 Benchmark Lifts Zoom Price Target to $115, Cites AI Strategy and Strong Fundamentals Feb 24, 2026 Benchmark Upholds Buy Rating on Diamondback After Mixed Q4 Results Feb 24, 2026