Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) with an Outperform rating and set a price target of $33.00 on Monday. At the time reported, Acadia shares were trading at $24.81, a level that corresponds with an analyst consensus implying about 29% upside to the new target.
The research note emphasized Acadia’s differentiated pharmacokinetic profile relative to Nuplazid as a principal reason for the positive view. Wolfe Research stated it expects that pharmacokinetic differences to translate into a superior clinical profile in the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease psychosis. The firm also flagged the potential to broaden the therapy’s use into other psychosis indications, specifically citing Lewy Body Dementia Psychosis as an area of interest. In its assessment, Wolfe referenced supportive findings from the HARMONY study of Nuplazid.
Independent valuation commentary included in market analysis indicates Acadia may be trading below its Fair Value estimate. According to InvestingPro assessment cited in market summaries, ACAD is seen as undervalued on a Fair Value basis, and the company is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8.
Recent broker activity around Acadia has been active and varied:
- Mizuho upgraded its stance on Acadia from Neutral to Outperform. The firm raised its price target from $29.00 to $35.00, attributing the change to what it described as underappreciated upside for remlifanserin (ACP-204) in the Phase 2 RADIANT trial targeting Alzheimer’s disease psychosis.
- Oppenheimer lifted its price target on Acadia to $23.00 from $21.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating. That adjustment followed discussions with Acadia management about long-term revenue projections, which include a projection of about $1.7 billion in total revenue by 2028 driven substantially by Nuplazid and Daybue sales.
- RBC Capital trimmed its price target to $31.00 from $35.00 but retained an Outperform rating. That reduction followed a negative trend vote from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) related to Daybue, a development that the firm noted could affect potential long-term revenue opportunities in Europe.
Regulatory headwinds have also emerged. The CHMP signaled a negative trend vote on Acadia’s Marketing Authorization Application for trofinetide for Rett syndrome. In response, Acadia intends to request a re-examination of that opinion following the expected final CHMP vote. The combination of the CHMP’s negative trend vote on Daybue and the signal against trofinetide underscores regulatory uncertainty that could influence future revenue pathways in certain markets.
Taken together, the recent analyst actions and regulatory signals present a mixed picture for Acadia: several brokerages have reiterated or upgraded to Outperform and adjusted price targets upward in some cases, while regulatory feedback has prompted at least one firm to lower its target and has led management to plan procedural steps to address CHMP concerns. Investors and market participants will likely weigh the company’s stated clinical differentiation and pipeline potential against regulatory progress and regional approval risks.