William Blair has reiterated its Outperform recommendation on Centrus Energy Corp. (NYSE: LEU), keeping faith in the company’s transition toward uranium enrichment even after a quarter that fell short of the analyst’s expectations.
The stock has produced a substantial gain over the last year, rising roughly 132%. InvestingPro data referenced by analysts shows Centrus trading at an elevated price-to-earnings ratio near 43. Following the company’s release of fourth-quarter results on Tuesday after the market closed, the shares moved lower in after-hours trading and were last quoted at $264.99 - about 57% of the stock’s 52-week high of $464.25.
In its note, William Blair said the quarterly performance and a flat guidance for 2026 were disappointing relative to its projections. The firm attributed the shortfall primarily to the timing of legacy separative work unit (SWU) agreements and to current mark-to-market movements in uranium prices, which affected earnings recognition and near-term results.
Despite those near-term headwinds, Centrus’ balance sheet metrics remain robust. The company reported a current ratio of 3.46, indicating that short-term assets substantially exceed short-term liabilities. Over the last twelve months, Centrus recorded revenue of $454.1 million and a gross profit margin of 31.78%.
William Blair also flagged unexpected volatility in Centrus’ import/broker trading business during the quarter. The research firm suggested that this trading activity is better judged on a full-year basis rather than based on a single quarter’s results, signaling that the firm expects some variability in that segment.
Analyst price targets for LEU remain widely dispersed, with the range stretching from $125 to $390. William Blair reaffirmed the Outperform rating on the basis of its longer-term thesis that Centrus is shifting its business toward uranium enrichment, which the firm sees as the company’s core growth trajectory.
Two significant developments were highlighted in the company’s recent announcements that support capital spending and capacity expansion. Centrus said it will invest more than $560 million to expand its centrifuge manufacturing facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. That project is expected to convert the site into a high-rate manufacturing plant, create roughly 430 jobs, and bring the first centrifuges online by 2029.
Separately, Centrus disclosed a $900 million task order from the U.S. Department of Energy to scale up its uranium enrichment facility in Piketon, Ohio, with a focus on producing High-Assay, Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU). The task order forms part of federal efforts to strengthen the domestic nuclear fuel supply chain.
Following the DOE awards, both William Blair and Evercore ISI reiterated Outperform ratings for Centrus Energy. William Blair’s continued endorsement followed a DOE allocation of $2.7 billion for domestic uranium enrichment, where Centrus was awarded an equal share alongside two other companies. Evercore ISI also kept its Outperform stance but noted that the awarded amounts were slightly below consensus expectations.
William Blair and other industry analysts say the funding and task orders are intended to support Centrus’ expansion projects and to reduce U.S. reliance on enriched uranium sourced from Russia, consistent with the aim of strengthening domestic production capacity.
Key points
- William Blair reaffirms an Outperform rating on Centrus while noting the quarter and 2026 guidance underwhelmed versus expectations.
- Centrus has strong liquidity with a current ratio of 3.46 and posted $454.1 million in revenue for the trailing twelve months with a 31.78% gross margin.
- Significant capital support - a $900 million DOE task order and a planned $560 million-plus Oak Ridge expansion - underpin the company’s shift to higher-rate centrifuge manufacturing and HALEU production.
Risks and uncertainties
- Quarterly volatility in the import/broker trading business may produce swings in short-term financial results - a factor that could affect near-term earnings and investor sentiment.
- Timing of legacy SWU contract performance and mark-to-market uranium price dynamics can suppress reported results and complicate forecasting for the energy and industrial segments tied to nuclear fuel production.
- Variability in government award expectations - the DOE allocations were described as slightly below consensus by some analysts - which could influence capital deployment plans tied to domestic nuclear fuel supply enhancements.