Analyst Ratings February 23, 2026

Wells Fargo Lifts Alphabet to Overweight as Compute Capacity and Cloud Outlook Improve

Bank raises price target to $387, cites major expansion in compute capacity and stronger Google Cloud revenue forecasts

By Maya Rios GOOGL
Wells Fargo Lifts Alphabet to Overweight as Compute Capacity and Cloud Outlook Improve
GOOGL

Wells Fargo upgraded Alphabet to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its price target to $387 from $354, citing a planned expansion of compute capacity and higher Google Cloud growth assumptions. The bank boosted near- and medium-term revenue and operating income forecasts for Google Cloud, incorporated an emerging Gemini subscription revenue stream into its model, and highlighted potential upside from a Siri partnership. Other industry developments cited include a new Gemini model release, regulatory headwinds for Waymo in New York state, and reaffirmations from other sell-side analysts.

Key Points

  • Wells Fargo upgraded Alphabet to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its price target to $387 from $354.
  • The bank models Alphabet expanding compute capacity to 35 GW by 2028 from 15 GW at year-end 2025, and Google Cloud capacity to 16.9 GW in 2028 from 7.6 GW in 2025.
  • Wells Fargo now forecasts Google Cloud revenue growth of 60% in 2026, 42% in 2027 and 28% in 2028, ahead of consensus, and expects Cloud operating income for fiscal 2026 and 2027 to be 10% to 15% above Street estimates.

Wells Fargo has upgraded Alphabet Inc. to Overweight from Equal Weight and increased its price target to $387 from $354, citing what it sees as an improving structural position driven by a substantial expansion in compute capacity and a stronger outlook for Google Cloud.

The upgrade comes amid a wider set of analyst revisions: available data shows 22 analysts have revised their earnings estimates higher for the upcoming period. Wells Fargo pointed specifically to Alphabet’s plan to expand compute capacity to 35 gigawatts by 2028 from 15 gigawatts at year-end 2025, a step the bank says extends Alphabet’s capacity lead versus other hyperscalers.


Revised Cloud forecasts and capacity assumptions

Wells Fargo raised its revenue forecast for Google Cloud to 60% year-over-year growth in 2026, a projection it notes is 11% above consensus. For subsequent years the firm modeled growth of 42% in 2027 and 28% in 2028, figures that are 16% and 12% higher than Street estimates, respectively. In parallel with those top-line assumptions, the bank estimates Google Cloud will expand physical capacity to 16.9 gigawatts in 2028 from 7.6 gigawatts in 2025.

The firm also adjusted its operating income expectations for Cloud, putting fiscal 2026 and 2027 Cloud operating income estimates 10% to 15% ahead of consensus. Those revisions reflect Wells Fargo’s view that larger scale and faster revenue growth will produce better-than-expected margin performance for the Cloud unit.


Gemini subscription ramp and potential Siri upside

Wells Fargo incorporated a consumer subscription revenue stream tied to Gemini into its projections. The bank expects this Gemini consumer subscription business to reach $12 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027, up from $4 billion exiting 2025. Separately, the firm flagged a possible contribution from an Apple Siri relationship as a source of upside that could materialize in 2027 or later.


Valuation and analyst context

On valuation, Wells Fargo highlighted Alphabet’s PEG ratio of 0.84, characterizing the stock as trading at a discount to its growth rate under the bank’s assumptions. Other sell-side activity includes Citizens reiterating its Market Outperform rating with a $385.00 price target; the Citizens analyst emphasized the expansion of AI-driven search as broadening the types of queries and strengthening commercial intent inference.


Additional industry developments

  • Alphabet has introduced Gemini 3.1 Pro, an upgraded model that the company says improves reasoning ability for complex problem-solving in areas such as science, research and engineering. The model achieved a verified score of 77.1% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark, which more than doubles the reasoning performance of the prior version, according to the reporting cited.

  • Waymo encountered a policy setback when a New York state proposal that would have allowed commercial robotaxi services outside New York City was withdrawn by the governor. That decision affects Waymo’s ability to test and deploy driverless services without human safety operators in vehicles.

  • Policy and market commentary also touched other areas: the Irish government is reportedly considering age restrictions on social media platforms as part of a wider AI strategy, while a Wedbush analyst named several potential catalysts that could help reverse recent weakness in the technology sector.


Implications for investors

Wells Fargo’s upgrade is grounded in a view that larger-scale compute capacity and stronger cloud revenue and operating income growth justify a more favorable rating. The bank’s model incorporates a faster Google Cloud ramp, a meaningful contribution from a Gemini subscription product, and potential upside from partnerships such as Siri. Those elements, taken together, underpin the higher price target and the more constructive stance.

Investors should note the range of cross-cutting factors affecting the outlook: capacity build-outs and capital deployment, cloud demand and pricing dynamics, the monetization path for AI products, and regulatory or policy decisions that could influence adjacent businesses such as autonomous mobility.

Wells Fargo’s revisions reflect an expectation of above-consensus growth and profitability for Google Cloud in the mid-term, but the bank’s stance will be tested by execution on capacity expansion, commercial adoption of AI products, and external policy developments.

Risks

  • Execution risk on rapid capacity expansion - failures or delays in building to 35 GW by 2028 would impact cloud supply and cost assumptions (affects cloud and data center sectors).
  • Monetization uncertainty for emerging AI subscription services - the projected ramp of Gemini consumer subscriptions from $4 billion exiting 2025 to $12 billion by end-2027 may not materialize as modeled (affects software, cloud and consumer AI markets).
  • Regulatory and policy decisions - state-level actions limiting autonomous testing or social media rules could constrain adjacent businesses such as Waymo or affect AI-related platform dynamics (affects autonomous mobility and social media sectors).

More from Analyst Ratings

Aletheia Capital Raises Nvidia to Buy, Cites Strong AI Demand and Channel Normalization Feb 23, 2026 Citizens Keeps Outperform Rating on DraftKings; Sees Significant Upside Despite Soft Guidance Feb 23, 2026 Citizens Upholds Outperform Call on Savara Ahead of MOLBREEVI FDA Decision Feb 23, 2026 Citizens Keeps Market Perform on Western Union as Digital Shift and Macro Pressure Persist Feb 23, 2026 Citizens Sticks with Market Outperform on Bicara Therapeutics, Cites Durable Clinical Data and Strong Cash Position Feb 23, 2026