UBS has lowered its 12-month price target on Wayfair Inc. to $130 from $135 but maintained a Buy recommendation on the shares. At the newly stated target, UBS calculates roughly a 54% upside from Wayfair's latest traded price of $84.56. The change follows recent volatility in the stock, which declined about 8.47% over the past week.
The bank reiterated that Wayfair appears positioned to be a beneficiary as the home furnishings market recovers, and it expects the company to demonstrate continuing strength and market-share gains in its upcoming fourth-quarter results. Wayfair is scheduled to report earnings on February 19, a near-term catalyst investors will be watching closely.
Analyst consensus data drawn from InvestingPro indicates Wall Street projects the company will be profitable this year, with an EPS estimate of $2.62 for fiscal 2025. UBS, while positive on the recovery thesis, flagged potential headwinds further out: the firm warned that difficulties in matching year-over-year comparisons could emerge beginning in the second quarter of 2026 and that the market may concentrate on a perceived slowing in the pace of Wayfair's market-share expansion.
Despite recent softening, Wayfair has delivered strong performance over a longer horizon, returning approximately 66.75% over the past 12 months. UBS also sees a runway for double-digit EBITDA growth as the home-furnishings recovery gains traction and said it expects estimates and the share price to move higher if the company can demonstrate the sustainability of its growth.
Separately, Wayfair disclosed a collaboration with Google to co-develop the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), an open standard intended to improve AI-driven shopping workflows. The protocol is designed to enable a new checkout experience on eligible Google product listings when used in AI Mode in Search and within the Gemini app.
Other analyst actions and company developments have added to the mixed outlook. Mizuho has kept an Outperform rating on Wayfair, citing relief from the Trump administration's decision to delay certain tariff increases; tariffs on items such as upholstered furniture will remain at 25%, a change Mizuho said offers some downside protection for the company's cost base.
By contrast, Jefferies downgraded Wayfair from Buy to Hold, pointing to valuation concerns and indications of slowing consumer demand. Jefferies noted Wayfair's shares trade at a substantial premium to peers. Meanwhile, Truist Securities reiterated its Buy rating, citing observed market-share gains and expressing confidence following meetings with Wayfair executives.
These differing analyst perspectives underscore varying assessments of Wayfair's valuation and growth durability as investors await concrete results from the upcoming earnings release.
Context for investors
With earnings imminent and several analyst opinions diverging, the market will likely weigh both near-term operational results and the longer-term trajectory for margins and market share. The sequence of announcements and ratings updates leaves the stock susceptible to short-term volatility while the company's recovery thesis is being tested.