UBS reduced its price target for Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) to $300.00 from $320.00 on Tuesday, while keeping a Buy recommendation on the shares. According to InvestingPro data cited alongside the update, Flutter’s stock was trading close to its 52-week low at the time of the note, with the relative strength index pointing to an oversold condition.
The bank said the cut in target reflects fresh US online sports betting data that indicate a material slowing of underlying growth versus earlier expectations. In response to those trends, UBS has lowered its own forecasted results. The firm now models 2026 and 2027 estimates that sit just under consensus, pointing to constrained near-term visibility driven by softer online betting activity in the United States.
Despite the downward revisions and the shorter-term uncertainty, UBS emphasised several positives in Flutter’s profile. The analyst note underlined the company’s market-leading position globally, noting it holds the number one market share in most of the major regulated online gaming jurisdictions. UBS also reiterated its view that the long-term structural opportunity for the business remains substantial.
Valuation mechanics were made explicit in the UBS analysis: the bank values Flutter at about 8 times fiscal 2027 estimated EBITDA. Even with that multiple, UBS warned that share-price volatility is likely to persist until there is clearer evidence that US earnings have stabilised.
Separately, a range of other developments and analyst moves have kept Flutter in the headlines. The company is set to pay 2 million following an investigation by the UK’s Gambling Commission, which found failures in social responsibility related to customer interactions.
Analysts at other firms have adjusted their price targets and forecasts as well. Citizens cut its target to $275, attributing the change to what it described as an "uncharacteristically bad performance" from management in December. Truist Securities reduced its target to $280, citing increased UK taxes and alterations in Illinois tax assumptions as drivers of the revision. Truist also trimmed its EBITDA estimates for Flutter, lowering 2026 and 2027 projections by 7% and 8% respectively on account of those tax concerns.
Within the broader sector dialogue, Morgan Stanley analysts were noted as maintaining a positive stance on European gambling stocks even as the industry contends with regulatory pressures and heightened competition. In the US market, DraftKings experienced share gains linked to heightened interest around the Super Bowl, a separate development not directly connected to a prediction-market controversy involving Kalshi Inc. and Juice Reel.
Taken together, the UBS target cut, the regulatory penalty, and the analyst adjustments highlight a mix of structural strengths and near-term headwinds for Flutter and the gambling sector more generally. UBS’s retention of a Buy rating and its valuation multiple indicate the bank still sees meaningful long-term upside, but the firm also expects ongoing share volatility until US earnings show signs of firming.
Key points
- UBS lowered Flutter Entertainment's price target to $300 from $320 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing weaker US online sports betting data.
- UBS's updated 2026 and 2027 estimates now sit slightly below consensus; the bank values Flutter at around 8x FY27E EBITDA.
- Regulatory and tax-related developments - including a 2 million payment to the UK Gambling Commission and revised tax assumptions in Illinois - have prompted cuts from other analysts and adjustments to EBITDA forecasts.
Risks and uncertainties
- Softer-than-expected US online sports betting trends could further depress revenue growth and contribute to continued share-price volatility - impacting investor sentiment in the broader gambling and online betting sector.
- Regulatory scrutiny, exemplified by the UK Gambling Commission's findings and the resulting 2 million penalty, raises compliance and reputational risk for operators across regulated markets.
- Tax policy changes and localized tax assumptions, such as those cited in Illinois and the UK, can materially affect profitability and prompted downward EBITDA revisions - a supply-side risk for gambling companies and their investors.
These developments underscore the mixed outlook for Flutter: a company with strong market positions and long-term potential, navigating near-term demand softness, regulatory penalties, and tax-related headwinds. UBS's call reflects that balance - lower near-term expectations offset by a continued view of structural value.