Analyst Ratings February 23, 2026

UBS Sticks with Neutral on Boston Beer Ahead of Q4 2025 Results

Analysts stress top-line sensitivity and tempered margin expectations as shares rally year-to-date

By Hana Yamamoto SAM
UBS Sticks with Neutral on Boston Beer Ahead of Q4 2025 Results
SAM

UBS maintained a Neutral rating on Boston Beer Company (SAM) with a $234.00 price target ahead of the company's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release. The bank projects a fourth-quarter adjusted loss per share of $2.44, which is less negative than Visible Alpha and FactSet consensus figures. UBS highlighted mixed investor sentiment, the Midwest Premium dynamic weighing on margins, and diminished valuation upside after a year-to-date share gain. RBC Capital also reiterated a cautious stance, keeping a Sector Perform rating and $245.00 price target while flagging persistent weak volume trends.

Key Points

  • UBS reaffirmed a Neutral rating and set a $234.00 price target ahead of Boston Beer’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, forecasting EPS of -$2.44.
  • Boston Beer shares have risen 20.4% year-to-date, outpacing beverage alcohol peers, but UBS says investor sentiment is mixed and valuation upside is less compelling.
  • RBC Capital maintained a Sector Perform rating with a $245.00 price target and highlighted persistent weak volume trends, underscoring top-line concerns for the company.

UBS has reaffirmed a Neutral rating on Boston Beer Company stock and reiterated a $234.00 price target as the company approaches its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings announcement, scheduled for Tuesday after the market close.

In its outlook for the period, UBS expects fourth-quarter earnings per share of negative $2.44. That projection is modestly better than the Visible Alpha consensus of negative $2.61 and slightly stronger than the FactSet consensus of negative $2.51.

The brokerage noted that Boston Beer shares have posted a notable year-to-date gain of 20.4 percent, outpacing a 12.6 percent rise among beverage alcohol peers. Despite that relative outperformance, UBS said its discussions with market participants indicate investor sentiment around the stock remains mixed.

On margins, UBS urged caution. The firm pointed to the Midwest Premium dynamic as a factor that should temper near-term margin expectations. While UBS said it sees potential for margin recovery over time, it emphasized that market sentiment will likely hinge on top-line trends rather than margins alone.

UBS also commented on valuation after the stock’s year-to-date move. Trading at $221.41 with a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.93, the shares have gathered momentum in spite of ongoing margin pressures. Independent Fair Value analysis data referenced in the firm’s overview still places Boston Beer among equities categorized as Most Undervalued, but UBS concluded that valuation is no longer as compelling given the recent share appreciation and therefore recommended a wait-and-see posture.

Separately, RBC Capital reiterated a Sector Perform rating on the company and maintained a $245.00 price target. RBC expressed caution despite the stock’s recent relative strength, which the firm attributed to sector rotation and a modest improvement in beverage alcohol performance earlier in the year.

RBC flagged continued challenges with the company’s fundamentals, calling out weak volume trends that it expects to persist. That emphasis on volume underscores the firm’s concern that Boston Beer could face ongoing difficulty in sustaining growth momentum.


These analyst updates offer a mix of signals for investors. UBS’s outlook points to a less-negative EPS outturn than some consensus measures, but the firm’s view that margins should be tempered and that valuation upside has narrowed suggests limited near-term catalysts. RBC’s focus on persistent volume weakness reinforces the idea that top-line metrics will be central to the stock’s trajectory.

Investors preparing for the imminent quarterly report are likely to weigh the EPS comparisons, margin commentary tied to the Midwest Premium dynamic, and the interplay between recent share gains and valuation metrics when assessing near-term positioning.

Risks

  • Margin pressure tied to the Midwest Premium dynamic could limit near-term profit recovery - this affects the consumer staples and beverage alcohol sectors.
  • Continued weak volume trends could impede revenue growth and offset recent share-price gains - relevant to investors in alcoholic beverage companies and consumer discretionary exposure.
  • Valuation compression or lack of valuation upside following the year-to-date share appreciation may reduce near-term upside potential for equity investors.

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