UBS refreshed its view on United Therapeutics Corporation (NASDAQ: UTHR) on Monday, keeping a Buy recommendation and a $645.00 price target. That target equates to about a 34% increase over the reference share price of $480.65 and sits alongside an InvestingPro financial health score labeled as "EXCELLENT".
The firm pointed to two imminent Phase 3 study results as material catalysts for the stock. At the same time, UBS acknowledged recent downward pressure on the shares - which had fallen roughly 8% from December highs - driven by investor expectations of a fourth-quarter Tyvaso shortfall tied to seasonality and a delay in the timing of a decision involving an interstitial lung disease (ILD) patent case.
Despite the recent pullback, United Therapeutics has produced a notable rally over recent months, with shares up 51.27% across the prior six-month period.
On the commercial front, UBS reduced its Tyvaso sales forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 to $463 million, a figure that implies 11% year-over-year growth and is lower than the firm’s earlier estimate of $501 million. Market consensus for that quarter stands at $494 million. UBS did not change its projections for 2026. The firm’s modeling of future performance is consistent with United Therapeutics’ reported revenue growth of 13.5% over the trailing twelve months.
Looking further ahead, UBS said the company could outperform in 2026 if a series of catalysts come to pass. Those potential drivers include the TETON-1 second Phase 3 data readout in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and outcomes data from the Phase 3 ADVANCE OUTCOMES trial for ralinepag in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). UBS applies an 80% probability of success in its IPF modeling and attributes risk-adjusted peak sales of $3.7 billion to that indication.
United Therapeutics’ underlying profitability metrics were highlighted as supportive of upside potential. UBS noted an 88.59% gross profit margin and a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.19. InvestingPro’s analysis, referenced by the firm, points to a dozen additional insights into the company’s financial strength and growth trajectory, available in its Pro Research Report.
UBS also compared net pricing across therapies, estimating Tyvaso’s net annual price at roughly $175,000 versus about $75,000 per year for rival antifibrotic therapies Esbriet and Ofev. The bank observed that combined uptake for Esbriet and Ofev rose to $2 billion by year three and $4 billion by year seven in the cited uptake profile.
United Therapeutics’ market capitalization was listed at $20.67 billion, and UBS calculated an earnings yield of 6%. The company’s next scheduled earnings release is on February 25.
In other corporate developments, United Therapeutics reported positive Phase 1 results for miroliverELAP, its bioengineered liver assist product for patients with acute liver failure. The study met its primary endpoint of patient survival during treatment and did not report any unexpected serious adverse events. The company also expanded its board with the appointment of Dr. Kevin J. Tracey, described as a biomedical researcher holding several prominent positions who brings additional expertise to the board.
Separately, Jefferies reiterated its Buy rating on United Therapeutics and maintained a $575.00 price target. Jefferies referenced management guidance that quarterly revenue could approach $1 billion by the end of 2027, with that growth expected to be supported by Tyvaso sales in pulmonary arterial hypertension and pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease. These updates underscore continued advancement across both the company’s commercial portfolio and its development pipeline.
Context and implications
UBS’ stance balances near-term sales moderation against a stronger midterm outlook driven by late-stage trials and high margins. The downgrade to the 2025 quarter forecast reflects seasonal dynamics and legal-timing uncertainty, while unchanged 2026 estimates reflect the bank’s confidence in the company’s broader trajectory should pipeline readouts be favorable.