Analyst Ratings February 24, 2026

UBS Sticks With Buy on Domino’s After Strong U.S. Sales; Analysts Mixed on Targets

Domino’s posts better-than-expected U.S. comps and sets cautious 2026 targets while analysts adjust price targets in both directions

By Caleb Monroe DPZ
UBS Sticks With Buy on Domino’s After Strong U.S. Sales; Analysts Mixed on Targets
DPZ

UBS reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $500 price objective for Domino’s Pizza following the company’s fourth-quarter report, which included stronger-than-expected U.S. same-store sales driven by transaction growth. Management provided initial 2026 guidance and highlighted strategic initiatives it expects to accelerate sales, while analysts issued a range of reactions to the results and outlook.

Key Points

  • UBS reiterated a Buy rating and a $500 price target for Domino’s after better-than-expected U.S. same-store sales in Q4.
  • Management provided initial 2026 guidance: 3% U.S. same-store sales growth, 1-2% international growth, and a target of ~8% operating income growth driven by ~6% global retail sales growth (ex-FX) plus a 2% benefit from a 53rd week.
  • Analyst reactions were mixed: Stifel, BTIG and Evercore ISI remained constructive or raised targets, while Bernstein SocGen and BMO trimmed targets or cited visibility concerns.

UBS maintained a Buy rating on Domino’s Pizza (NYSE:DPZ) stock and kept its $500.00 price target after the company released fourth-quarter results that included better-than-expected U.S. same-store sales. The shares were trading at $411.95 at the time of the report, reflecting a market capitalization near $13.5 billion.

Domino’s reported U.S. comparable-store sales that exceeded expectations in the quarter, a result the company attributed to positive transaction growth. Management signaled confidence in ongoing market share gains and offered an encouraging view for 2026, while noting that certain strategic initiatives will influence the pacing of results through the year.

2026 guidance and drivers

The initial guidance for 2026 provided by the company includes a 3% U.S. same-store sales growth target and a 1-2% international same-store sales growth range. Domino’s is targeting roughly 8% operating income growth, a goal the company expects to achieve through about 6% global retail sales growth excluding foreign exchange and an approximately 2% benefit from a 53rd week.

Management said it expects the first half of 2026 to be stronger than the second half because of the timing of strategic initiatives. Those initiatives include established contributors such as promotions, Stuffed Crust, and participation on third-party platforms, in addition to other new sales drivers the company plans to deploy.

Looking further ahead, Domino’s described a longer-term opportunity to double U.S. retail sales growth and reiterated a historical trend of gaining about 100 basis points of market share per year.


Valuation and analyst responses

According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears slightly overvalued relative to its Fair Value, though the firm assigns Domino’s a "GOOD" financial health score. An InvestingPro note highlighted that eight analysts have trimmed earnings estimates for the upcoming period even as management offered optimistic guidance.

On the sell-side, analysts delivered mixed reactions to the quarterly results and guidance. Stifel kept a Buy rating and a $485 price target, citing market share gains. Bernstein SocGen Group reduced its price target to $470 and maintained a Market Perform rating, pointing to concerns about visibility. BMO Capital lowered its price target to $500 because of limited visibility on comparable sales for the second half of 2026 but retained an Outperform rating. Evercore ISI raised its price target to $510, citing steady U.S. market share gains, while BTIG held a $500 price target and a Buy rating, emphasizing strong sales execution.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Domino’s reported domestic comparable sales growth of 3.7%, ahead of Stifel’s 3.0% estimate and the Street consensus of 3.2%. The company said global unit growth was approximately in line with expectations.


Where this matters

The updates affect investor assessments of Domino’s unit economics and growth trajectory, particularly in the U.S. quick-service and delivery segments. The interplay of transaction-driven comp gains, promotional activity, and third-party platform participation will be watched closely by market participants evaluating retail sales growth, operating income leverage, and margin performance.

Risks

  • Analyst earnings cuts - Eight analysts have lowered earnings estimates for the upcoming period despite management’s optimistic guidance; this divergence creates uncertainty for investor expectations (impacts equities and sell-side research coverage).
  • Visibility into late-2026 comparable sales - BMO flagged limited visibility on comparable sales for the second half of 2026, a factor that could affect revenue and margin forecasts (impacts restaurant-operating and retail sales projections).
  • Valuation gap - InvestingPro indicates the stock is slightly overvalued versus Fair Value, which presents risk for prospective returns if growth or margin assumptions do not materialize (impacts equity valuation and investor positioning).

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