Analyst Ratings February 6, 2026

UBS Sticks With Buy on DaVita, Sets $190 Target Citing Return to Volume Growth

Analyst sees upside as management pursues improved patient outcomes, GLP-1 adoption and technology to restore long-term treatment growth

By Caleb Monroe DVA
UBS Sticks With Buy on DaVita, Sets $190 Target Citing Return to Volume Growth
DVA

UBS maintained its Buy rating on DaVita (DVA) and set a $190 price target, highlighting management's plan to return to roughly 2% long-term volume growth through better patient outcomes, wider use of GLP-1 medications among dialysis patients, fewer missed treatments and adoption of proven technologies. The stock trades near $145.72 and the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat estimates on both EPS and revenue.

Key Points

  • UBS maintains a Buy rating on DaVita with a $190 price target, signaling potential upside from the recent $145.72 share price - impacts Healthcare Providers & Services and equity markets.
  • Management is targeting roughly 2% long-term volume growth by improving patient outcomes, increasing GLP-1 medication use among dialysis patients, reducing missed treatments and adopting proven clinical technologies - impacts dialysis service delivery and clinical operations.
  • DaVita beat fourth-quarter 2025 expectations with EPS of $3.40 and revenue of $3.62 billion; UBS notes 2026 guidance targeting ~3% adjusted operating income growth and ~33% adjusted EPS growth at the midpoint - impacts company earnings and investor expectations.

UBS reiterated a Buy recommendation on DaVita (NYSE: DVA) and assigned a $190.00 price target, a level that implies meaningful upside from the shares' recent trading around $145.72. The firm pointed to management initiatives aimed at restoring long-term treatment-volume growth as the foundation for its positive stance.

Company leadership has signaled growing confidence in returning to about 2% annual volume growth over the long term. The strategy is grounded in a series of operational and clinical priorities: improving patient outcomes and reducing mortality, expanding use of GLP-1 medications among dialysis patients, cutting down on missed treatments and integrating new clinically proven technologies into care protocols.

DaVita, which has a market capitalization near $10 billion, operates within the Healthcare Providers & Services sector. Management notes that historical trends included 2-7% annual treatment growth from 2013 through 2019, a period when improved mortality rates supported higher volumes. While referrals for new patients have largely returned to pre-Covid levels, the company continues to contend with elevated mortality rates that have weighed on treatment growth.

The firm cites average life expectancy for dialysis patients at roughly six years, although it acknowledges that with careful management of comorbid conditions some patients can live for decades. Management believes that focusing on outcomes will be central to re-establishing steady volume increases in the years ahead.

UBS analyst AJ Rice emphasized these operational levers and valuation considerations in upholding the firm's positive outlook on DaVita's business prospects and equity valuation. UBS also adjusted its view on the stock in light of recent quarterly results and forward guidance.

DaVita reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted results that topped consensus expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $3.40 versus an expected $3.24, and revenue of $3.62 billion versus a forecast of $3.51 billion. Following the release, UBS raised its price target to $190 from $186 while retaining its Buy rating, citing the company's growth trajectory.

UBS highlighted DaVita's 2026 guidance, which at the midpoint projects adjusted operating income growth of approximately 3% and adjusted earnings per share growth of about 33%. Another research firm, TD Cowen, reiterated a Hold rating with a $133 price target and noted that DaVita exceeded consensus revenue expectations by 3.2% and adjusted EBIT by 3.4% in the fourth quarter.

The combination of stronger-than-expected quarterly performance and management's clinical initiatives underpin UBS's constructive stance, according to the note. Investors and analysts will be watching progress on mortality improvement, treatment adherence and clinical adoption closely as indicators of whether the company can return to the volume growth that supported past expansion.

Risks

  • Elevated mortality rates continue to depress treatment growth despite referrals returning to pre-Covid levels - risk to volume recovery and revenue in the Healthcare Providers & Services sector.
  • Achievement of the projected return to consistent volume growth depends on clinical improvements and adoption of treatments like GLP-1 medications; failure to realize these outcomes would undermine the growth thesis - risk to operational performance and investor valuation.
  • Guidance for 2026 is directional; if adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS growth do not materialize as forecast, the stock's upside implied by the $190 target could be at risk - risk to market sentiment and stock performance.

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