UBS has reaffirmed a Buy rating on AppFolio (NASDAQ:APPF) and maintained a $260.00 price target following the company’s fourth-quarter report and a post-earnings discussion with management. That price objective sits well above the current share price of $184.57, which the article notes has fallen 43.22% over the past six months.
The bank pointed to an encouraging tone from AppFolio’s executive team and highlighted notable unit expansion in recent periods. UBS cited unit additions of 300,000 in the fourth quarter and 500,000 in the second half of 2025 as evidence of underlying customer momentum. The firm regards such gains in units as an advance signal for future subscription revenue and revenue from value-added services, while also cautioning that top-line growth can trail unit growth while the company shifts toward higher-end customers.
UBS’s commentary acknowledged that the translation of units into revenue can be delayed by several operational factors that were discussed with management. Those factors include the timing of go-live implementations and seasonal patterns in the business, with the fourth quarter typically softer and the second and third quarters historically stronger during "leasing season."
On recent performance metrics, AppFolio reported revenue growth of 19.72% over the last twelve months, based on figures cited in the review. Analysts are projecting earnings per share of $6.66 for fiscal year 2026. UBS also flagged two areas it views as potential contributors to accelerated monetization: AI performers monetization and resident onboarding, which the firm expects could begin to drive incremental revenue in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
Even as shares trade near their 52-week low, the note records that five analysts have recently revised earnings estimates higher for the upcoming period. For investors seeking a deeper dive into AppFolio’s metrics and outlook, InvestingPro is mentioned as providing a Pro Research Report with additional analysis and valuation inputs, and InvestingPro data is cited as indicating the stock appears undervalued based on its Fair Value assessment.
Recent company results and analyst reactions were mixed in timing and tone. AppFolio’s fourth-quarter results showed revenue growth accelerating for the third consecutive quarter to 21.9% year-over-year, and units rose 8% for the second straight quarter. However, the company’s guidance for 2026 revenue growth - a 16.7% midpoint - came in below the Wall Street consensus of 18.5% and prompted some analysts to lower price targets.
Specific analyst moves cited include Piper Sandler trimming its price target to $245 and DA Davidson setting its target at $275, with DA Davidson attributing its adjustment to weaker-than-expected value-added services revenue. KeyBanc reduced its price target to $255 but kept an Overweight rating, citing confidence in AppFolio’s potential for average revenue per user expansion. William Blair reiterated an Outperform rating and emphasized the company’s accelerating unit additions and strong free cash flow. DA Davidson continued to carry a Buy rating.
Those analyst adjustments followed investor meetings with AppFolio’s VP of Finance, after which KeyBanc reiterated its Overweight stance and reported increased confidence in the company’s growth prospects.
Overall, UBS’s retained Buy rating and $260.00 target rest on continued unit momentum, management’s upbeat post-earnings commentary, and potential long-term monetization paths. At the same time, near-term revenue guidance that fell short of Street expectations and timing mismatches between unit additions and recognized revenue remain factors investors and analysts are weighing.