UBS on Friday revised its stance on Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN), changing the stock rating from Sell to Neutral and raising its price target to $16.00 from $15.00. The analyst responsible for the move, Joseph Spak, framed the change as a response to a more balanced near-term risk/reward profile at current market levels, and noted that the prior Sell recommendation had been driven in part by valuation considerations.
The firm reiterated enthusiasm for Rivian's product portfolio, pipeline and brand strength, even as the stock's recent trading record has been mixed. Over the past year the shares have gained 5.26%, while year-to-date performance shows a 28.97% decline.
UBS pointed to Rivian's 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles as a key data point. That outlook exceeded the firm's prior expectations and, according to UBS, creates potential for more robust performance in 2027 and beyond if Rivian can convert that guidance into realized production and sales. Rivian's reported revenue growth stands at 28.21% for the last twelve months, and consensus forecasts flagged in the note indicate an additional roughly 8% revenue increase for fiscal 2025.
Despite the more constructive near-term risk/reward assessment, UBS emphasized substantial execution and liquidity risks. The bank estimated that Rivian would need to deliver approximately 45,000 vehicles in the second half of 2026 overall, and around 22,000 units of the R2 model specifically, to meet its targets. UBS described that volume profile as requiring "near flawless production execution." The firm also called out ongoing cash burn and said the company is not expected to reach positive EBITDA for several years, adding skepticism about the likelihood of near-term positive earnings revisions.
Market valuation context in the UBS note included InvestingPro data showing Rivian trading near its Fair Value, with analyst price targets ranging from $10 to $25.
Additional broker commentary and corporate developments were noted ahead of Rivian's fourth-quarter earnings announcement. Benchmark projects fourth-quarter revenue of $1.27 billion, slightly above consensus of $1.26 billion, and expects an adjusted loss per share of $(0.61), compared with consensus at $(0.71). Barclays maintained an Equalweight rating, citing a shift in sentiment toward more negative fundamentals ahead of the earnings release. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated a Neutral rating and highlighted Rivian's launch of an Autonomy+ subscription service priced substantially lower than Tesla's comparable offering.
Leadership changes were also reported: Rivian has appointed former General Motors executive Azam Akhtar as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective March 1.
Separately within the set of recent analyst actions, the coverage record also reflects a UBS move in which the firm took Rivian from Neutral to Sell while raising a price target to $15.00 from $13.00, a development the note described as reflecting concerns about elevated expectations. Those apparently differing analyst actions sit alongside the other broker views and company guidance as market participants weigh delivery execution, margin trajectories and cash-flow dynamics.
Contextual note - The developments outlined above come as Rivian prepares to report fourth-quarter results and as analysts balance upside from stronger-than-expected guidance with near-term operational and liquidity risks.