Summary
UBS increased its price target for ConocoPhillips to $130.00 from $120.00 and maintained a Buy rating. The new target implies roughly 20% upside relative to the current trading level of $108.03, and the stock is trading close to its 52-week high of $108.44. Analyst targets for the company range from $98 to $133, according to InvestingPro data.
Price target and market context
UBS raised its valuation on ConocoPhillips, citing strategic exposures that the bank believes warrant a higher multiple. The bank increased its target multiple by 0.5x to reflect the company’s exposure to Venezuela, which UBS views as a material component of ConocoPhillips’ long-term optionality. That adjustment is one of the drivers behind the revised $130 price target.
Recent operating results
ConocoPhillips reported a challenging fourth quarter for fiscal 2025, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.02 that fell short of analyst expectations of $1.18. Revenue for the quarter came in at $13.82 billion, underperforming the anticipated $14.14 billion. The company cited softer production as a driver of the earnings miss, and capital expenditures ran higher than forecasts.
Following the quarter, ConocoPhillips reduced its 2026 production outlook by about 5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day at the midpoint. In response to the results and outlook, InvestingPro data notes that 15 analysts have recently lowered their earnings estimates for the upcoming period, leaving FY2026 EPS forecast at $4.33.
Longer-term catalysts highlighted by UBS
Despite near-term pressures, UBS pointed to several longer-term positives. ConocoPhillips expects the Willow project to reach roughly 50% completion after the current construction season. The company’s multi-year exploration program around Willow, UBS said, has the potential to more than double the resource available for development.
UBS also emphasized ConocoPhillips’ positioning in Venezuela. The bank noted the company’s claims in the country exceed $10 billion and said ConocoPhillips appears to be the best-positioned exploration and production company to capture value there, including the potential to produce if appropriate safeguards are put in place.
Financial resilience is another point UBS flagged: InvestingPro data shows ConocoPhillips has paid dividends for 56 consecutive years and currently offers a dividend yield of 3.12%.
Other analyst moves
Other brokerages adjusted their views following the quarter. Piper Sandler raised its price target to $111 while keeping an Overweight rating, characterizing the results as "largely inline" with its own estimates. BMO Capital lifted its target to $115 from $105 and maintained an Outperform rating, though it trimmed estimates following the earnings release and the revised 2026 outlook. These actions reflect shifting analyst expectations after the mixed quarterly performance and updated guidance.
Bottom line
UBS’s upward revision to $130 rests on project-level progress at Willow and the firm’s Venezuela exposure, offset against recent operational softness and higher capex. The market reaction will likely reflect the balance between those longer-term optionalities and the nearer-term production and earnings headwinds.