UBS trimmed its price objective for Steven Madden (NASDAQ:SHOO) shares to $42 from $43 while keeping a Neutral rating on the stock. The shares currently trade around $39.89 and the company's market capitalization sits near $2.9 billion, as investors await Steven Madden's upcoming earnings report scheduled for February 25.
The bank said it expects the company to issue muted fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share guidance, citing three principal headwinds. First, UBS anticipates weak private-label sales because mass-channel retail partners are likely to resist raising prices. Second, the firm foresees slower growth in the Off-Price channel, again tied to retailers' reluctance to accept higher tags in that segment. Third, UBS warns that selling, general and administrative expense pressure could be larger than previously expected, which would weigh on results.
On the numbers, UBS models fiscal 2026 EPS guidance in a range of $2.00 to $2.10, which is below the consensus Street forecast of $2.22. Conversations with investors, the bank said, indicate the market broadly anticipates a similar outcome; UBS therefore views upside and downside risk around the earnings release as balanced.
Additional metrics cited in recent analyst materials show expectations for a decline in net income this year, while the shares trade at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 50.95. Options market pricing points to an expected move of plus or minus 6.1% around the earnings event versus a historical average move of 4.5%. UBS expects actual volatility to be lower than the plus or minus 6.1% implied by current options pricing.
Market commentary from other brokers illustrates a mixed reception among analysts. BTIG has reiterated a Buy rating with a $50.00 price target, highlighting momentum in the branded footwear business even as it acknowledges likely headwinds in private label. Jefferies, by contrast, downgraded the stock from Hold to Underperform, citing mounting wholesale pressures and pushback from major retail partners on price increases. UBS itself had previously maintained a Neutral stance with a $43.00 price target following Steven Madden's acquisition of Kurt Geiger, viewing that deal as having potential to support long-term growth, but the bank has now lowered its target to $42 in light of the nearer-term guidance risks.
Investors will be watching the Feb. 25 earnings report closely for confirmation of the guidance range and for further clarity on sales trends across the mass, Off-Price, and private-label channels, as well as the scale of SG&A headwinds the company expects to incur.
Key takeaways
- UBS cut its price target on Steven Madden to $42 from $43 and kept a Neutral rating as it anticipates weak fiscal 2026 guidance.
- The bank expects weak private-label and Off-Price channel sales and larger-than-expected SG&A pressure to weigh on EPS.
- UBS projects fiscal 2026 EPS guidance of $2.00 to $2.10 versus the Street at $2.22; options imply a plus or minus 6.1% earnings move, while UBS expects less volatility.
Sectors impacted: Retail, Apparel and Footwear, Wholesale, Financial Markets (options volatility).