UBS has adjusted its outlook on Somnigroup (NYSE:SGI), lowering its price target to $115 from $122 on Tuesday while keeping a Buy recommendation. The move follows a modest reduction in the firm's 2026 earnings-per-share forecast and comes amid recent market volatility for the stock.
Over the past week the shares have fallen 9.63% according to InvestingPro data, though they remain up 28.01% over the past 12 months. UBS trimmed its 2026 EPS estimate by 3% to $3.35 from $3.45. That revision tracks Somnigroup’s own 2026 earnings guidance, which the company issued as a range of $3.00 to $3.40 per share - a band that sat below UBS’s prior expectation of $3.20 to $3.40.
UBS said the lower bound of the company’s guidance reflects a more cautious stance than the broker had anticipated, and the firm highlighted elements of conservatism embedded in the outlook. The bank also noted that InvestingPro data shows three analysts have recently lowered estimates for the upcoming period, aligning with the tone of the company’s guidance.
Despite UBS’s modest downgrade, the firm judged Somnigroup to be well positioned to hit the midpoint or exceed the midpoint of its 2026 outlook. UBS quantified anticipated contributions from Mattress Firm ownership, projecting $0.35 of EPS benefit from realized synergies and an additional $0.05 uplift from recording roughly 12 months of Mattress Firm’s results in 2026 versus 11 months in 2025.
From an estimates perspective UBS described 2026 as likely de-risked following the company’s guidance. The bank observed that achieving the midpoint or higher would require only modest organic growth and incremental margin improvement, starting from a $2.70 EPS base in 2025.
Market valuation metrics underscore investor expectations for continued growth. Somnigroup trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.46 and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 22.84, indicating a premium valuation. InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment currently classifies the stock as overvalued even as the company has reported profitability over the last twelve months, with a current trailing EPS of $1.84.
Recent company results have been mixed. Somnigroup reported fourth-quarter 2025 EPS of $0.72, matching expectations, but revenue came in at $1.87 billion versus forecast sales of $1.93 billion, a shortfall investors have watched closely.
Other broker commentary remains supportive. KeyBanc reiterated an Overweight rating on Somnigroup with a $105 price target, citing share gains, anticipated synergies from the Mattress Firm ownership and the prospect of an acquisition of LEG as factors underpinning its positive view. KeyBanc identified Somnigroup as a top long-term investment idea, even as industry-wide recovery remains a topic of discussion among market participants.
Context and implications
UBS’s move to cut the price target by $7 follows a small adjustment to earnings expectations rather than a fundamental shift in the firm’s view of growth potential. The bank’s retained Buy rating and explicit modeling of Mattress Firm synergies signal that UBS still expects the company to generate incremental earnings power into 2026, provided the firm hits or beats its guidance midpoint.
At the same time, valuation multiples point to elevated market expectations, and revenue misses have become a focus for investors evaluating execution against those expectations.