UBS reduced its price objective for Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE:CRM) to $200 from $260 and left its stock rating unchanged at Neutral, the firm said after conducting a series of customer and partner conversations ahead of Salesforce’s fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for Wednesday, February 25.
As part of its review, UBS spoke with seven customers and partners to evaluate near-term core growth trends and to gauge the medium-term risk of disruption from artificial intelligence. The firm reported an improved reception to Salesforce’s Agentforce offering and said those it spoke with showed no inclination to swap Salesforce for an AI-built alternative.
Despite positive commentary around Agentforce, UBS did not find supporting evidence that Salesforce’s backlog or revenue growth rates are increasing. That assessment contributed to UBS maintaining its Neutral stance even with the stock trading at 11 times calendar year 2026 estimated free cash flow.
Separately, several developments within Salesforce have drawn attention from other analysts and reflect shifts in the company’s positioning. The company’s Agentforce business surpassed $500 million in Annual Recurring Revenue in the fiscal third quarter, registering a 330% year-over-year increase in ARR. That momentum has prompted a range of analyst responses.
Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating with a $405.00 price target. Stifel kept a Buy rating and a $300.00 target, citing progress in AI adoption even as Salesforce’s shares have declined about 25% year-to-date. JMP Securities moved to upgrade the stock, pointing to growth in the Agentforce segment as a catalyst.
On the corporate side, Salesforce issued equity awards tied to recent acquisitions. The company granted 139,574 restricted stock units to 42 employees across Apromore, Spindle AI, and Informatica as part of post-acquisition equity distributions.
In leadership changes, Ryan Aytay, who had been appointed in 2023 to lead Salesforce’s Tableau unit as part of efforts to integrate the $15.7 billion acquisition, announced his departure after 19 years with the company. The exit of a long-tenured executive comes amid the company’s broader strategic adjustments.
Taken together, these items - UBS’s revised target and Neutral rating, mixed signals on backlog and revenue growth, Agentforce’s rapid ARR expansion, analyst target divergence, acquisition-related equity grants, and a key leadership departure - sketch a picture of a company navigating product momentum and structural transition while investor viewpoints remain varied.
Summary
UBS lowered its Salesforce price target to $200 from $260 and retained a Neutral rating after speaking with seven customers and partners ahead of Q4 results. The bank flagged medium-term AI disruption risk but found no customer interest in replacing Salesforce with AI-native alternatives and no evidence of increasing backlog or revenue growth. Agentforce delivered strong ARR growth, prompting supportive calls from several other analysts even as shares have lagged year-to-date.
Key details
- UBS reduced its price target from $260 to $200 and kept a Neutral rating.
- UBS held discussions with seven customers and partners prior to Salesforce’s Q4 earnings on February 25.
- Agentforce surpassed $500 million in ARR in fiscal Q3, up 330% year-over-year, and has driven upgrades and higher targets from some firms despite UBS’s cautious view.
Impacted sectors
- Enterprise software and cloud services
- AI and software-as-a-service adoption
- Corporate M&A integration and human capital in tech
Risks and uncertainties
- Medium-term AI disruption risk - UBS explicitly noted this as a factor it assessed when reviewing Salesforce’s outlook, which could affect enterprise software adoption patterns.
- Near-term growth weakness - UBS reported no evidence of increasing backlog or revenue growth rates, raising concern about short-term top-line momentum.
- Leadership and integration risk - the departure of Tableau head Ryan Aytay after 19 years could influence integration efforts tied to the $15.7 billion acquisition.