UBS has moved Crown Holdings from a Buy rating to Neutral and established a price objective of $126.00 as it anticipates a deceleration in the company’s earnings trajectory. The brokerage’s reassessment arrives after a period of robust volume and per-share gains for the packaging firm, and reflects expectations that growth will moderate as operational capacity tightens.
Management and market data indicate Crown delivered steady volume expansion of roughly 1-2% in each of 2024 and 2025. That volume performance translated into notable adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth during the same span, with average adjusted EPS rising by about 16% across those years. The company’s shares have also posted a strong total return, up 31.21% over the past 12 months.
Despite the recent gains, UBS now expects the firm to sustain only about 2% volume growth going forward, a pace the analyst team says will likely generate mid-single-digit EPS growth in 2026 as capacity becomes more fully utilized. In response to these dynamics, UBS trimmed its adjusted EPS projections for 2026 and 2027 by 2% and 4%, respectively, and currently models roughly a 6% average adjusted EPS growth rate over the next two years.
The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.06 based on near-term earnings, a metric that some market indicators flag as a relatively low multiple given the company’s expected earnings trajectory. UBS pointed to the mix of moderating operating leverage and rising utilization as the core reason for its more cautious rating.
From a cash generation standpoint, Crown still produces significant free cash flow after minority dividends, approximately $750 million annually by the firm’s accounting, which UBS notes equates to roughly a 5% free cash flow yield on the shares based on current market values. Another set of trailing-period metrics shows an even stronger free cash flow yield of 9% for the last twelve months, a level that underpins the company’s record of five consecutive years of dividend increases.
Operational results published for the fourth quarter of 2025 included adjusted EPS of $1.74, ahead of the $1.70 consensus figure. Yet the favorable quarterly result did not prevent a pullback in market pricing - the stock declined 5.84% in premarket trading following the release, a move that market participants interpreted as signaling concerns about the company’s forward growth outlook and the broader market backdrop.
Other sell-side firms have also updated their stances on the shares amid the rally and valuation questions. Wolfe Research downgraded the stock from Outperform to Peerperform, describing the risk/reward as more balanced after recent share gains. Similarly, JPMorgan revised its rating from Overweight to Neutral while increasing its price target from $112.00 to $115.00. Crown’s shares have experienced substantial appreciation in recent periods, including a rise of 34% over the past year and a 58% gain since mid-February 2024, following a difficult 2023 when earnings fell by 13%.
In aggregate, the recent analyst activity reflects a shift in emphasis from near-term upside tied to volume recovery toward a more measured view that incorporates capacity constraints and valuation considerations. The changes in forecasts and stances across multiple brokerages underscore the tension between solid cash generation and expectations for slower EPS progression as the company’s plants run nearer to full utilization.
Note: This article focuses on recent analyst ratings, earnings and cash-flow metrics affecting Crown Holdings and does not provide an investment recommendation.