UBS has moved Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) to a Buy rating from Neutral and raised its 12-month price target to $73 from $51, driven by what the bank describes as upside to the carrier’s planned ancillary revenue initiatives.
Analyst Atul Maheswari told clients UBS now sees more substantial earnings power tied to Southwest’s efforts to introduce extra legroom, assigned seating and checked-bag fees. The firm’s modelling suggests that, when these initiatives reach maturity by fiscal 2027, they could collectively contribute about $4.25 to $4.50 in incremental earnings per share.
UBS’s base case breaks that potential down into roughly $2.70 from extra-legroom offerings and approximately $1.70 from checked-bag fees. Those components account for most of the bank’s projected jump in EPS, from under $1 in fiscal 2025 to north of $6 in fiscal 2027.
Reflecting the anticipated revenue gains, UBS raised its fiscal 2026 EPS estimate to $5.05 from $4.31 and its fiscal 2027 estimate to $6.07 from $5.12. The firm notes its updated forecasts sit around 20% above consensus estimates.
UBS expects Southwest to incorporate this revenue upside into its guidance, specifically by using the higher end of the airline’s fiscal 2026 outlook range instead of the current target phrased as "at least $4.00." The airline has indicated it will provide the upper bound of its fiscal 2026 range when it reports first-quarter 2026 results, or potentially sooner.
Recent company results and governance changes provide context to UBS’s revision. Southwest reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $0.58, a slight beat versus expectations of $0.57, while revenue for the quarter came in at $7.4 billion compared with a $7.5 billion forecast.
Board-level adjustments were also disclosed. Two directors appointed to represent Elliott Investment Management, David Cush and Gregg Saretsky, will step down from Southwest’s board effective February 23, 2026. The company said it will reduce its board size from 13 to 11 members as a result. The appointments of these directors date back to October 2024; their departures are part of ongoing governance changes at the airline.
UBS’s rating change and model updates highlight a material shift in the bank’s view of Southwest’s revenue mix and earnings trajectory, while recent quarterly results and board changes mark parallel developments in the company’s operations and governance.