Analyst Ratings February 17, 2026

UBS Lifts Ross Stores Price Target to $199 Citing Q4 Momentum, Keeps Neutral Rating

Firm forecasts modest Q4 upside and issues fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range; market reaction expected to be muted

By Avery Klein ROST
UBS Lifts Ross Stores Price Target to $199 Citing Q4 Momentum, Keeps Neutral Rating
ROST

UBS increased its price target for Ross Stores to $199 from $181 while maintaining a Neutral stance. The bank's checks point to solid fourth-quarter sales momentum and a likely 15-cent EPS beat versus the Street's $1.88 estimate. Ross Shares are trading near their 52-week high, and UBS expects fiscal 2026 EPS guidance in the $7.05 to $7.35 range. Analysts and the options market anticipate a measured reaction to the upcoming earnings release.

Key Points

  • UBS raised its price target on Ross Stores to $199 from $181 but maintained a Neutral rating.
  • UBS expects Ross to beat fourth-quarter EPS by $0.15 against a Street estimate of $1.88 and anticipates fiscal 2026 EPS guidance of $7.05 to $7.35.
  • Valuation metrics cited include a current P/E of 30.7 and an EV/EBITDA of 20.79; options markets imply a roughly +/-4.5% move around the earnings event.

UBS raised its price objective on Ross Stores, Inc. to $199 from $181 and left its rating on the shares unchanged at Neutral. The firm cited what it described as solid sales momentum in Ross' fourth quarter as the primary driver for the higher target.

At the time of UBS' note, Ross was trading at $196.30, which the firm highlighted is about 0.99% below the retailer's 52-week high of $197.24. Over the trailing 12 months the stock has returned 43.21%, underscoring recent strength in the share price.

UBS' field checks suggest the company should post a fourth-quarter earnings-per-share result that beats Street expectations by $0.15, compared with the consensus projection of $1.88. Ross is scheduled to report results on March 3. According to InvestingPro data referenced in UBS' commentary, five analysts have already raised their EPS estimates ahead of the quarter.

The firm also set an expectation for Ross' fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share guidance to land between $7.05 and $7.35. UBS noted that, based on conversations with institutional investors, the broader market appears to be anticipating a similar type of report and guidance range.

Despite the anticipated upside to the upcoming quarter, UBS said the fourth-quarter release is unlikely to materially shift investor sentiment or alter the stock's valuation multiple, which the bank cited as roughly 27 times forward two-year price-to-earnings. UBS framed the event as presenting a balanced set of risks and rewards around the print rather than a clear directional catalyst.

Complementary valuation metrics cited in the firm's analysis include a current P/E of 30.7 and an EV/EBITDA of 20.79, figures that InvestingPro's work indicates leave Ross trading above its Fair Value estimate.

Options market pricing around the earnings event suggests an expected move of plus or minus 4.5%, slightly below the historical average move of 4.7%. UBS said it concurs with that view of a relatively contained market reaction.

UBS' note references recent analyst activity from other firms that have reacted to Ross' operating performance. In the retailer's third fiscal quarter, Ross reported EPS of $1.58, beating both BofA Securities' estimate of $1.36 and the consensus expectation of $1.40. That outperformance was tied to a 7% gain in comparable store sales and improved gross margins.

Following those results, BofA raised its price target to $200 from $175 and kept a Buy rating, citing the stronger sales and an improved merchandise assortment. TD Cowen likewise lifted its target to $203 from $192 and maintained a Buy rating, pointing to a strategic transformation at the company that includes stepped-up marketing, store refreshes, and distribution center fulfillment improvements.

On the corporate governance front, Ross announced a board leadership transition. K. Gunnar Bjorklund will succeed Michael Balmuth as Chairman of the Board effective February 1, 2026. Balmuth will retire from the board on January 31, 2026, and will serve as a Senior Advisor through March 31, 2026.

The company also confirmed the death of Norman Ferber, a former Chairman and CEO who was credited with a key role in Ross' growth. Ferber passed away on January 23, 2026, at the age of 77.


What to watch

  • Ross' official fourth-quarter EPS and management commentary when results are released on March 3.
  • Whether management issues fiscal 2026 guidance consistent with UBS' $7.05 to $7.35 expectation.
  • Any market reaction around valuation metrics and the options-implied move versus historical norms.

Risks

  • Earnings reaction risk - UBS sees balanced upside and downside around the Q4 report, indicating the stock could move either direction based on the print or guidance - affects equity investors and options traders.
  • Valuation mismatch - Ross' current valuation (P/E 30.7; EV/EBITDA 20.79) is above its Fair Value per InvestingPro, implying downside risk if growth disappoints - impacts long-only equity holders and value-focused funds.
  • Event volatility - While options-implied move of +/-4.5% is slightly below historical average, unexpected commentary or guidance could still push larger market moves - relevant to derivatives and short-term traders.

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