Analyst Ratings February 11, 2026

UBS Lifts Nvidia Price Target to $245, Cites Strong Revenue Outlook Ahead of Earnings

Analyst projects upside to guidance and steady margins as company readies quarterly report and GTC presentation

By Hana Yamamoto NVDA
UBS Lifts Nvidia Price Target to $245, Cites Strong Revenue Outlook Ahead of Earnings
NVDA

UBS has increased its price target on Nvidia to $245 from $235 and kept a Buy rating as it anticipates revenue that outpaces the company's guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter. The firm forecasts robust near-term sales and expects Nvidia to reaffirm a 75% gross margin, while noting potential guidance exclusions for China and investor concern over margin durability amid competitive developments.

Key Points

  • UBS raised its Nvidia price target to $245 from $235 and reiterated a Buy rating; this move directly impacts semiconductor equity valuations and investor positioning in AI hardware.
  • UBS projects fiscal fourth-quarter revenue near $67.5 billion and first-quarter revenue around $76 billion, figures that exceed company guidance and market expectations and affect market forecasts for technology sales.
  • Nvidia expects to maintain a 75% gross margin target despite competitive pressures and regulatory uncertainties, an outcome important for profit-sensitive sectors including semiconductors and cloud AI infrastructure.

UBS has raised its price target on Nvidia to $245.00 from $235.00 and continues to carry a Buy rating ahead of the chipmaker's forthcoming earnings announcement. The company sits at an estimated market value of $4.65 trillion and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.47. Analyst consensus remains strongly in favor of purchase, with an average recommendation score of 1.35.

According to UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri, the investment bank expects Nvidia's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to land near $67.5 billion, roughly $2.5 billion higher than the company’s own guidance. That projection mirrors Nvidia's recent top-line performance, which has grown by 65.22% over the past twelve months.

Looking further ahead, UBS models first-quarter revenue at about $76 billion, which is above the market's current expectation range of $74-75 billion. The firm also flagged the likelihood that Nvidia may omit China from its guidance, citing increased adoption of domestically produced GPUs in that market. UBS noted that any unanticipated revenue from China could nevertheless lift the fourth-quarter results.

On profitability, UBS expects Nvidia to hold to its 75% gross margin guidance. The firm acknowledged emerging investor questions about the sustainability of that margin level, given perceived competitive pressure from products such as the Google and Broadcom TPUs. UBS anticipates these margin topics will be addressed during Nvidia's earnings call and at the company’s GTC conference scheduled for March.

In separate corporate developments, Nvidia has committed to investing over NT$40 billion to open its first overseas headquarters in Taiwan. The Taipei city government signed an agreement with Nvidia that sets land royalties for the project at NT$12.2 billion.

Other recent items tied to Nvidia include an update that UBS reiterated its Buy stance while maintaining a $235 price target in commentary that cited strong Taiwan export data as a favorable signal for upcoming results. In a different transaction, Apollo Global Management is reported to be close to arranging a roughly $3.4 billion loan to acquire Nvidia chips for leasing to Elon Musk's xAI, marking what was described as Apollo's second major move in this space.

Regulatory and partnership news has also been prominent. Nvidia has publicly expressed concern that new U.S. rules on chip exports to China could be overly restrictive and potentially dampen demand. Separately, Tower Semiconductor announced a collaboration with Nvidia to develop silicon photonics technologies for AI data centers, a partnership that coincided with a notable jump in Tower Semiconductor's share price.

These items together underscore active investor attention on Nvidia's near-term revenue trajectory, margin outlook, international operations, and strategic investments and alliances. UBS's revised target and projections form part of the broader market assessment as the company prepares to report quarterly results and present at GTC.

Risks

  • Potential exclusion of China from guidance - China’s shift toward domestically produced GPUs could remove a portion of expected revenue and affect semiconductor exports and global supply-demand dynamics.
  • Investor concern about margin sustainability - Perceived competition from Google and Broadcom TPUs raises uncertainty around Nvidia’s ability to sustain a 75% gross margin, impacting profitability assumptions in technology and data center sectors.
  • New U.S. chip export rules - Stricter export controls to China could reduce demand for Nvidia products and disrupt revenue projections across international markets, particularly for companies serving AI data centers.

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