UBS has lifted its 12-month price objective for CAVA Group Inc to $69 from $66, while retaining a Neutral rating on the Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant chain. The revised target sits narrowly above CAVA's recent trading level of $68.62, and reflects a cautious stance even as the firm trims and upgrades its near-term estimates.
UBS expects CAVA's fourth-quarter results, due on Feb. 24, 2026, to produce same-store sales and earnings that come in ahead of consensus. UBS analyst Dennis Geiger said that momentum appears to be improving into 2026, pointing to easier comparisons and company initiatives that should support sales gains.
Data provided alongside UBS's update shows the stock is trading at a high price-to-earnings multiple of 46.4, and that the company has recorded strong revenue growth of 23.93% over the last twelve months. Investors currently anticipate a modest upside for fourth-quarter same-store sales relative to consensus: market expectations include a 50 to 100 basis point beat versus a consensus decline of 1.1%, and some market participants are forecasting even stronger results. First-quarter trends are likewise expected to be solid relative to a consensus projection of positive 1.1%.
CAVA's share price has demonstrated meaningful volatility, reflected in a reported beta of 2.43. UBS highlighted that the elevated beta could magnify price moves after the upcoming earnings release.
Guidance, EBITDA and development outlook
In conversations underpinning its update, UBS said that same-store sales assumptions baked into 2026 guidance largely mirror consensus forecasts of 2.9%. Adjusted EBITDA targets cited in those discussions were broadly in line with consensus of $182.7 million. On new openings, UBS expects management's development plan to stay on track, including a 2026 net openings target of 16% or more, which compares with a consensus projection of 16.7%.
The firm's estimates for 2026 and 2027 were raised modestly to reflect slightly higher sales assumptions. Despite those upward adjustments, UBS emphasized that it will wait for further evidence of sustained, outsized growth in what it described as a challenging macroeconomic backdrop before adopting a more constructive stance on the shares.
Market context and valuation
CAVA's market capitalization was reported at $7.34 billion, a level UBS noted as indicative of high growth expectations already priced into the stock. UBS's cautious position aligns with a fair-value assessment that suggests the shares may be overvalued at present. Investors seeking deeper analysis were directed to a company research report made available through the platform noted in the data, which is part of a broader research library.
Views from other sell-side firms and management update
Other brokerages maintain more optimistic targets. Stifel is maintaining a Buy rating with a $75.00 price target and expects CAVA's results to meet or exceed market expectations, pointing to continued growth via unit expansion and menu innovation. TD Cowen raised its target to $72.00, citing the company's potential to reach consensus same-store sales forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026. Bernstein moved its price target to $75.00 from $80.00 and kept an Outperform rating while noting the presence of tough year-over-year comparisons.
Separately, CAVA announced the appointment of Doug Thompson as Chief Operations Officer, effective March 2. Thompson is described as a restaurant industry veteran with prior experience at Texas Roadhouse, where he contributed to consistent sales growth. The hire is presented as part of the company's ongoing efforts to strengthen operational leadership ahead of near-term results and continued expansion.
Takeaway
UBS's move to raise its price target while holding a Neutral rating captures a balance: the firm acknowledges improving sales trends and nudges its estimates higher for 2026 and 2027, yet remains guarded until it sees sustained, outsized growth in a challenging macro environment. Market participants should weigh high valuation metrics, recent revenue acceleration, forthcoming quarterly results on Feb. 24, 2026, and ongoing development and leadership initiatives when assessing the stock.