Analyst Ratings February 12, 2026

UBS Keeps Buy Rating on T-Mobile; $300 Price Target Stands After Capital Markets Day

Analyst note cites management guidance for accelerating EBITDA and robust free cash flow projections amid mixed analyst target moves

By Maya Rios TMUS
UBS Keeps Buy Rating on T-Mobile; $300 Price Target Stands After Capital Markets Day
TMUS

UBS reiterated a Buy rating on T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) and maintained a $300.00 price target after the carrier’s Capital Markets day, highlighting an outlook for accelerating EBITDA growth and meaningful free cash flow. Management’s guidance for 2026 and 2027 aligns broadly with street estimates while showing upside versus prior implied expectations, and the company reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results on both EPS and revenue.

Key Points

  • UBS reiterated a Buy rating on T-Mobile with a $300.00 price target, while the stock trades at $219.18 and is viewed as slightly undervalued by InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment.
  • Management’s guidance targets accelerating EBITDA growth, with 2026 service revenue projected at $77 billion and 9-11% EBITDA growth; 2027 targets include $80.5-81.5 billion in service revenue and $40-41 billion of EBITDA.
  • T-Mobile reported Q4 2025 EPS of $2.14 and revenue of $24.33 billion, both above Wall Street expectations, prompting mixed analyst moves on price targets and ratings.

UBS reiterated a Buy rating on T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) and kept its $300.00 price target on Thursday. The stock is trading at $219.18 and, according to InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment, is viewed as slightly undervalued. Analyst price targets cited in market commentary extend up to $310.

UBS pointed to management’s presentation at T-Mobile’s Capital Markets day as a constructive signal, saying guidance implies accelerating EBITDA growth with modest upside relative to prior street estimates. The company’s current EBITDA is reported at $32.56 billion, and InvestingPro notes that management continues to repurchase shares.

For 2026, T-Mobile’s management projects $77 billion in service revenues and 9-11% EBITDA growth. UBS characterized that guidance as broadly in-line with street expectations, while also noting that it represents an upside to earlier implied outlooks - an adjustment UBS attributes in part to potential M&A activity.

Looking to 2027, management’s targets include $80.5-81.5 billion in service revenue and $40-41 billion of EBITDA. Street estimates cited in coverage stand at $80.8 billion for service revenue and $40.1 billion for EBITDA. UBS summarized the two-year compound annual growth rates - excluding deals - as roughly 5-6% for service revenue and 7-8% for EBITDA.

T-Mobile’s near-term capital plan calls for approximately $10 billion of capital expenditures in 2026, along with elevated integration and restructuring spending in the same year and higher cash taxes in 2027. Management projects these dynamics will support free cash flow of $18-18.7 billion in 2026 and $19.5-20.5 billion in 2027. By comparison, street expectations referenced in analyst notes are $18.8 billion for 2026 and $19.8 billion for 2027.

InvestingPro analysis included in market commentary indicates that the stock generally experiences low price volatility, a trait that may appeal to investors seeking steadier equity exposure.


Recent financial results and analyst reactions

T-Mobile reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that beat Wall Street forecasts on both EPS and revenue. Reported EPS was $2.14 versus an expected $2.04, and revenue came in at $24.33 billion compared with an anticipated $24.18 billion.

Following the results, several analyst firms adjusted their price targets and stances:

  • Wolfe Research raised its price target to $255 from $253, citing strong financial results despite some weaker operational metrics.
  • TD Cowen lowered its target to $252 from $263, pointing to slightly lower-than-expected phone subscriber additions driven by higher customer churn.
  • Scotiabank trimmed its target to $266 from $270.50 while retaining a Sector Outperform rating, highlighting T-Mobile’s advanced 5G network and customer value strategy.
  • Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating with a $295 price target, emphasizing network advantages.

These adjustments reflect divergent analyst perspectives following T-Mobile’s earnings and updated forward guidance.


Market context and takeaways

UBS’s reaffirmation of a Buy rating and a $300.00 price target rests on management’s forward-looking metrics that imply accelerating EBITDA growth and substantial free cash flow in 2026 and 2027. The company’s reported fourth-quarter 2025 performance beat consensus on EPS and revenue, though some analysts tempered targets in response to subscriber trends and churn.

Investors weighing T-Mobile should consider the juxtaposition of stable cash-flow projections and near-term operational headwinds reflected in analyst target revisions.

Risks

  • Higher customer churn and slightly weaker phone subscriber additions, as cited by TD Cowen, which could pressure revenue and operational metrics - impacting the telecom sector.
  • Elevated integration and restructuring spending and increased cash taxes in 2026-2027 could affect near-term free cash flow outcomes relative to expectations - relevant to corporate finance and fixed-income investors.
  • Potential reliance on M&A activity to drive upside versus prior implied outlooks introduces execution and regulatory uncertainty - affecting broader telecom merger activity and midstream corporate strategy.

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