Analyst Ratings February 10, 2026

Truist Sticks With Hold on Incyte, Keeps $103 Target After Mixed Q4 Results

Analyst highlights 2026 revenue guidance alignment and pipeline-readout focus as shares fall in pre-market trading

By Ajmal Hussain INCY
Truist Sticks With Hold on Incyte, Keeps $103 Target After Mixed Q4 Results
INCY

Truist Securities has maintained a Hold rating on Incyte and left its price target at $103. The firm pointed to fiscal year 2026 net product revenue guidance that aligns with consensus and said near-term investor attention will be on pipeline readouts and commercial execution. The stock moved lower in pre-market trading after mixed fourth-quarter results that combined a revenue beat with earnings misses and higher-than-expected R&D spending.

Key Points

  • Truist Securities reiterated a Hold rating on Incyte and maintained a $103 price target, citing alignment between Incyte's FY2026 net product revenue guidance ($4.77 billion to $4.94 billion) and the consensus estimate ($4.83 billion).
  • Fourth-quarter results mixed: total revenue of $1.51 billion beat the $1.35 billion consensus (10% quarter-over-quarter growth, 28% year-over-year growth), while earnings metrics reported in company disclosures showed misses versus forecasts, contributing to roughly a 10% pre-market share decline.
  • Key marketed products contributed to revenue strength with Jakafi at $828 million (3% above consensus) and Opzelura at $207 million (4% above consensus), while GAAP R&D expenses of $611 million were 13% above consensus estimates, signaling pressure on near-term profitability and investor focus.

Truist Securities reiterated its Hold recommendation on Incyte and preserved a $103.00 price target, citing the company's guidance and upcoming milestones as the primary near-term drivers for investor attention.

The firm highlighted Incyte's fiscal year 2026 net product revenue guidance of $4.77 billion to $4.94 billion, which it noted is in line with the consensus estimate of $4.83 billion. Truist said it expects the company to concentrate in 2026 on pipeline readouts and sustained commercial execution.

Market reaction to Incyte's fourth-quarter disclosure was sharp. Shares declined by roughly 10% in pre-market trading after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that included an adjusted diluted earnings per share figure of $1.46 versus consensus expectations of $1.93.

At the same time, Incyte reported a revenue beat. Total revenue for the quarter came in at $1.51 billion compared with consensus of $1.35 billion. The company characterized that revenue as showing 10% quarter-over-quarter growth and 28% year-over-year growth.

Product-level performance contributed to the top-line strength. Jakafi generated $828 million in revenue, about 3% above the consensus view of $805 million. Opzelura produced $207 million in revenue, around 4% higher than the $199 million consensus.

Expenses, however, weighed on profitability. GAAP research and development expenses were reported at $611 million, exceeding consensus estimates of $539 million by 13%.

Truist underscored several specific catalysts and monitoring points for investors. Those include the imminent approval and launch of povorcitinib for hidradenitis suppurativa, progress on '989 mCALR in indications such as myelofibrosis and essential thrombocythemia, and the commercial trajectories for Opzelura, Niktimvo, and Monjuvi.

Separately noted in the company updates was a mixed characterization of the quarter. Revenue of $1.51 billion exceeded analysts' expectations of $1.35 billion, described as an 11.85% positive surprise. By contrast, an earnings metric was reported at $1.80 per share versus a $1.91 consensus, described as a 5.76% negative surprise. The two sets of earnings figures were presented in the company's disclosures.

Taken together, Truist's Hold stance reflects a balance between commercial momentum on key products and nearer-term concerns around profitability and execution on pipeline milestones. The firm left its price target unchanged while signaling that investor focus will likely remain on the upcoming regulatory and clinical readouts as well as sales trends for the highlighted products.


Contextual note: The foregoing presents the company's guidance, quarterly results, product revenues, expense figures, and the analyst response as disclosed by the company and reported by the coverage team.

Risks

  • Earnings disappointment risk - Adjusted and reported earnings metrics missed consensus in the quarter, which may continue to affect investor sentiment and share price volatility in the short term; this directly impacts equity market participants in biotech and healthcare sectors.
  • Higher-than-expected R&D spending - GAAP R&D expenses of $611 million exceeded consensus by 13%, creating uncertainty around margin recovery and free cash flow outcomes for Incyte, relevant to investors and credit markets monitoring biotech capital allocation.
  • Regulatory and launch uncertainty - Near-term investor attention is concentrated on the approval and commercial launch of povorcitinib and clinical readouts for '989 mCALR; outcomes and timelines for these programs are material to the company's commercial prospects and to healthcare industry stakeholders.

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