Truist Securities reaffirmed a Hold rating on Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. and kept a $25.00 price target on Tuesday. The action came after Harmony reported fourth-quarter 2025 results and provided preliminary fiscal 2026 sales guidance.
At the time of the note, Harmony’s shares were trading at $28.15, and the stock had fallen roughly 27% over the prior week. Separate valuation analysis referenced by market commentators suggests the company could be trading below intrinsic value, with a Fair Value estimate indicating meaningful upside potential at current prices. Truist’s decision to retain a Hold reflects a balance between the company’s near-term commercial performance and the legal and competitive uncertainties ahead.
Quarterly results and guidance
Harmony disclosed fourth-quarter 2025 Wakix sales of $243.8 million, a sequential increase of 1.8%. The company also reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.57, which missed the consensus projection of $0.86 by 33.72%. Revenue outperformed expectations, with actual sales of $243.8 million versus a forecast of $239.23 million.
For the fiscal year 2026, Harmony provided preliminary sales guidance in a range of $1.00 billion to $1.04 billion. The midpoint of that range represents a year-over-year increase of approximately 17%. Company management reaffirmed confidence in the 2026 outlook during the earnings call that Truist reviewed.
Litigation and competitive risks
Truist drew attention to remarks made by the presiding judge in Harmony’s intellectual property infringement trial against AET Pharma. According to the analyst note, those comments imply a material risk that could extend beyond the current year. The analyst further indicated that it now appears likely generic versions of Wakix could enter the market before 2030, with potential entry anywhere from the second half of 2026 through 2029.
Despite these headwinds, Truist observed that Harmony trades at a relatively low price-to-earnings multiple of 9 and continues to show solid financial health metrics, as noted in the analyst commentary.
Mixed quarterly picture
The fourth-quarter frame presents a mixed read: record Wakix revenue and a revenue beat on the top line, alongside an EPS shortfall that fell well below expectations. That combination, together with the litigation timeline risk and the potential for accelerated generic competition, informed Truist’s decision to maintain a neutral rating.
Investors watching Harmony will be tracking developments in the AET Pharma case, the timing of any generic entry, and the company’s ability to convert revenue growth into consistent earnings expansion given the current financial profile.