Truist Securities has reduced its price target on Goosehead Insurance Inc. (NASDAQ:GSHD) to $58, down from $72, while keeping a Hold rating on the equity. At the time of the note the stock was trading around $50.63, and the new target indicates potential upside from that level. InvestingPro data cited in the note also classifies the shares as currently undervalued despite a 56.84% decline over the past 12 months.
The brokerage maintained its 2026 earnings-per-share projection for Goosehead at $2.00, a figure Truist said aligns with the company’s own guidance for revenue growth of 10% to 19%. Within its modeling Truist assumes 14% topline growth and expects modest compression in EBITDA margins. That stance was described as conservative in the note relative to the company’s recent operating trend: revenue rose 25.01% in the trailing twelve months.
Looking beyond 2026, Truist set a 2027 EPS forecast of $2.45 per share. That estimate is predicated on an assumption that investment spending will stabilize and that topline expansion will remain in the mid-teens range.
The analyst commentary highlighted a positive element from the most recent quarter, noting that the fourth quarter showed upside on contingent items. Management’s own 2026 guidance centers on mid-teens revenue growth at the midpoint, consistent with the tone of Truist’s projections.
Truist’s $58 price target is derived from applying a multiple of 5.8 times its 2026 revenue estimate. The note points out this valuation level sits at the upper end for property and casualty brokerage peers. While Goosehead trades at a relatively high price-to-earnings ratio of 44.78, its PEG ratio of 0.61 was cited as evidence the shares remain attractively valued relative to anticipated growth.
In separate company disclosures and analyst actions, Goosehead reported fourth-quarter revenue of $105.3 million, ahead of analyst expectations of $99.34 million and marking a 12% increase from the prior year. The firm’s fourth-quarter earnings-per-share came in at $0.48, below the consensus estimate of $0.57.
Market responses were mixed following those results. Piper Sandler upgraded Goosehead to an Overweight rating while keeping a $69.00 price target, noting the company’s guidance was closely aligned with its own forecasts. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods revised its price target to $85 from $95, citing fiscal 2026 guidance midpoints that came in slightly under its expectations. Citizens trimmed its price target to $125 from $140 but maintained a Market Outperform rating, underscoring differing views about the company’s growth potential in a large market.
Goosehead’s forward targets, as disclosed by management, include written premium growth of 12% to 20% and revenue growth of 10% to 19%, along with expectations for modest margin contraction. Collectively the analyst moves and company guidance reflect a mix of optimism about topline expansion and caution driven by margin and earnings dynamics.
Summary
Truist cut its price target on Goosehead to $58 while keeping a Hold rating and its 2026 EPS view at $2.00. The firm models 14% revenue growth in 2026 with modest margin pressure and projects $2.45 in EPS for 2027 on expectations of stabilized investment spending and mid-teens revenue expansion. Fourth-quarter results showed revenue above expectations but EPS below consensus, prompting varied responses from other brokers.
Key points
- Truist lowered its price target to $58 from $72 and maintained a Hold rating - impacting investor positioning in insurance and financials sectors.
- 2026 EPS forecast held at $2.00; Truist models 14% topline growth and modest EBITDA margin compression, while management guides to 10%-19% revenue growth.
- Q4 revenue of $105.3 million beat estimates but EPS of $0.48 missed; broker reactions ranged from upgrades to lowered price targets, underscoring divergent analyst sentiment in the brokerage community.
Risks and uncertainties
- Margin pressure - Truist explicitly forecasts modest EBITDA margin compression, which could affect profitability metrics in property and casualty brokerage operations.
- Guidance execution - Several firms referenced fiscal 2026 guidance midpoints that were slightly below expectations, introducing uncertainty about the company hitting its targets.
- Valuation sensitivity - Goosehead’s high P/E of 44.78 contrasts with a PEG of 0.61; valuation multiples could be sensitive to changes in growth trajectory or margin outlook.