Truist Securities on Monday raised its price target for Tandem Diabetes Care to $27 from $24, while maintaining a Hold recommendation. The firm pointed to Tandem's stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results as the trigger for the adjustment, noting that increased traction in the pharmacy channel and improved U.S. pump shipments underpinned the beat.
Central to Truist's view is Tandem's deliberate distribution transition toward pharmacies. Management has set a target of migrating roughly 80% of the company's installed base to pharmacy channels within a two- to three-year window. Truist expects that move to trade off near-term revenue - in particular, lowering revenue in 2026 - but to produce higher revenue and profit in subsequent periods as the new channel yields more predictable pricing and margin expansion.
The market reacted sharply to the combination of the quarterly outperformance and strategic guidance: Tandem shares jumped 29% in morning trading to $26.88 on Monday, while the IHI healthcare ETF was essentially unchanged. The rally capped an eye-catching six-month advance of 106%, though the stock still sits about 23% below its 52-week high of $35.12.
Independent valuation work included in published commentary indicates the shares may be trading above a computed Fair Value at current levels. Analysts pointed to the "significant return over the last week" as a notable short-term price movement. Truist said its decision to raise the target reflected a modest increase in the valuation multiple it applied, but the firm emphasized that further upside will depend on how rapidly the pharmacy-adoption curve steepens and how that change influences specific elements of its financial model.
Company disclosures and analyst notes tied to the quarter underlined the pharmacy transition as a structural lever for more predictable growth and improved financial metrics. The fourth-quarter beat was attributed primarily to the pharmacy channel ramp and stronger U.S. pump shipments, with commentary from multiple brokerages reflecting renewed confidence in the company’s ability to scale distribution.
Other research houses also moved their targets or ratings in response to the quarter and the distribution shift. Lake Street Capital Markets upgraded Tandem to a Buy and set a $50 price objective, citing the pharmacy pivot. Stifel and Piper Sandler both increased their targets to $22 and $21, respectively, while maintaining Hold and Neutral stances. Mizuho raised its target to $22 and highlighted record global pump shipments and a $13 million revenue beat as reasons for the adjustment.
Tandem provided fiscal 2026 guidance that projects total sales growth of 5% to 7% year-over-year, a range described by analysts as slightly below Street expectations. The company also reported adjusted EBITDA margins that exceeded consensus by roughly 250 basis points, reinforcing the message that the shift in distribution could improve profitability once the transition is more fully realized.
Truist framed the longer-term opportunity in the pharmacy model as one that should deliver both pricing and margin benefits, even while acknowledging the near-term revenue trade-offs inherent to the change. The firm reiterated that the pace of pharmacy adoption - and its mechanical impact on revenue recognition, unit economics, and margin profiles - will be the primary determinant of how much additional upside the shares can capture beyond the revised target.
Collectively, the analyst moves and company commentary depict a company in the midst of a sizable operational pivot. Management and several brokerages see the pharmacy channel as a route to more predictable unit economics and stronger long-term financial performance, while also signaling a period of transitional results as the installed base shifts channels.