Truist Securities raised its price target on RXO, Inc. (NYSE: RXO) to $20.00 from $18.00 and retained a Buy recommendation, signaling greater confidence in the freight brokerage's medium-term prospects. RXO is trading at $16.07 and has rallied roughly 9.1% over the past week.
The research note attributes the target increase to an improving backdrop in the trucking market and early signs of capacity tightening caused, in part, by carrier exits related to regulatory enforcement. Truist framed the company’s recent financial appearance as being influenced more by cycle timing than by a deterioration in competitive position.
Quantitative support for Truist’s stance includes RXO’s robust revenue expansion and price performance: the firm noted a 26.2% increase in revenue and a 33.7% year-to-date stock return, figures drawn from InvestingPro data cited in the analysis.
Despite the upgrade, Truist acknowledged near-term margin constraints. Elevated buy-side costs and limited spot-market availability continue to limit EBITDA in the short run, but the firm judged these pressures to be cyclical rather than structural. In that context, it suggested brokerage margins are approaching trough levels and that incremental spot opportunities are beginning to materialize.
Operational execution is central to Truist’s thesis. The firm highlighted sustained productivity improvements at RXO and a broader deployment of artificial intelligence, which it believes should let the company translate improvements in gross profit per load into EBITDA at a higher incremental rate than in prior cycles. The research note also pointed out that RXO carries a moderate level of debt and currently reports a gross profit margin of 16.39%.
On forecasting, Truist left its 2026 estimates unchanged and published an initial outlook for 2027. The firm characterized RXO as "increasingly attractive," citing trough margins, visible pipeline activity, and accelerating operating leverage as reasons for the more positive stance. While RXO was not profitable over the last twelve months, InvestingPro-led analyst consensus referenced in the note projects the company will reach profitability this year, with an EPS forecast of $0.02 for fiscal 2026.
RXO’s most recent quarterly report, covering the fourth quarter of 2025, presented a mixed picture. The company posted an adjusted loss per share of $0.07, which missed consensus expectations that anticipated a $0.04 loss. Revenue for the quarter was $1.5 billion, a modest upside versus forecasts, representing a 0.67% positive surprise.
Market reaction from coverage analysts has been cautious. Benchmark and Stifel retained Hold ratings on RXO in the wake of the earnings release, both pointing to continued earnings and margin pressures as reasons for their stance. Benchmark specifically called out RXO’s first-quarter EBITDA guidance of $5 million to $12 million as below its previous estimate of $13 million, prompting Benchmark to lower its outlook. Stifel similarly noted that the company’s adjusted EPS and EBITDA results fell short of their prior estimates.
Raymond James also maintained a Market Perform rating, noting that certain performance metrics have deteriorated since RXO’s acquisition of Coyote Logistics in 2024. Taken together, the commentary from these firms underscores ongoing challenges for RXO as truckload spot rates rise and industry capacity tightens within the freight transportation sector.
Truist’s upgrade reflects a view that cyclical pressures are beginning to turn and that RXO’s productivity and AI progress can accelerate the conversion of load-level gross profit into company-level EBITDA. At the same time, shorter-term headwinds and mixed quarterly results have kept parts of the sell-side more cautious, leaving investors with contrasting signals about near-term performance while highlighting potential upside if the cycle shifts as Truist expects.