Analyst Ratings February 24, 2026

Truist Lifts Home Depot Price Target After Strong Q4 Performance

Analyst keeps Buy rating as company posts quarter beat and outlines 2026 guidance with sequential improvement expected

By Leila Farooq HD
Truist Lifts Home Depot Price Target After Strong Q4 Performance
HD

Truist Securities increased its 12-month price target on Home Depot to $424 from $405 while retaining a Buy rating, citing a solid fourth quarter, modest January sales growth and supportive housing trends. Home Depot delivered better-than-expected Q4 results and provided 2026 guidance that anticipates improvement through the year despite an expected mid-single-digit EPS decline in Q1 driven by gross margin and expense timing pressures.

Key Points

  • Truist raised its Home Depot price target to $424 from $405 and maintained a Buy rating; shares trade at $384 with a market cap of $383.6 billion and a P/E of 26.25 - impacting equity markets and retail sector valuations.
  • Home Depot reported positive U.S. comparable sales throughout calendar year 2025 and delivered a Q4 earnings beat: adjusted EPS $2.72 versus $2.54 expected and revenue $38.2 billion versus $38.14 billion expected - relevant to retail and building materials demand indicators.
  • Company guidance for 2026 anticipates improvement over the year but forecasts a mid-single-digit EPS decline in Q1 due to gross margin and expense timing pressures; housing affordability trends and aging U.S. housing stock are cited as supportive factors for demand.

Truist Securities has raised its price target on Home Depot stock to $424 from $405 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. The shares are trading at $384, implying a market capitalization of $383.6 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.25.

The upgrade follows what Truist described as a solid fourth quarter for the home improvement retailer, supported by a modest uptick in January sales. Home Depot reported positive U.S. comparable-store sales across calendar year 2025, despite the lack of storm activity and tougher comparisons in the back half of the year.

Over the last twelve months the company generated $166.19 billion in revenue and reported diluted earnings per share of $14.66. Those trailing figures form part of Truist's assessment of the company's near-term valuation and prospects.

Home Depot's calendar year 2026 guidance signals improvements are expected as the year progresses. Management projects a mid-single-digit decline in earnings per share for the first quarter, a short-term contraction Truist attributes to gross margin and expense timing pressures. The company expects sequential improvement beyond the first quarter.

In presenting its outlook, Truist highlighted several contextual factors that underpin its positive stance. The firm pointed to easing housing affordability headwinds and the ongoing aging of U.S. housing stock as structural drivers for repair and maintenance demand. Truist also referenced the potential for housing stimulation concepts from the Trump administration as an additional supportive factor. Based on these elements, the analyst team said it remains buyers of Home Depot shares.


Separately, Home Depot reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that exceeded consensus estimates. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.72, ahead of the forecasted $2.54. Quarterly revenue totaled $38.2 billion, slightly above the anticipated $38.14 billion. Those results were presented as a positive performance amid a challenging retail backdrop.

The earnings release and revenue beat were framed as evidence of Home Depot's operational execution under pressure. Although the company's stock price increased following the earnings announcement, coverage here concentrates on the underlying financial metrics rather than the intraday market reaction. The available information did not include detailed analyst commentary on the quarter.

Taken together, the price-target adjustment, the quarter's outperformance and the 2026 guidance present a picture of a large home-improvement retailer navigating a mixed macro and retail environment while forecasting gradual improvement through the coming year. Investors and market participants have the company's reported metrics - trailing revenue of $166.19 billion, diluted EPS of $14.66, and the latest quarter's adjusted EPS of $2.72 on $38.2 billion in revenue - as reference points when assessing valuation and near-term trajectory.

Risks

  • Near-term earnings pressure: Home Depot projects a mid-single-digit EPS decline in the first quarter driven by gross margin and expense timing issues - a risk to short-term profitability and retailer earnings expectations.
  • Challenging retail environment: The report notes a difficult retail backdrop, which can affect comparable-store sales and margins across the sector.
  • Policy uncertainty: Truist referenced potential housing stimulation concepts from the Trump administration; the nature and timing of any policy action remain uncertain and could influence housing-related demand.

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