Analyst upgrade and rationale
Truist Securities on Friday raised its price target for FedEx (NYSE:FDX) to $400.00 from $330.00 and reiterated a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said the market is not fully recognizing the company’s earnings framework for 2029, which includes a target of $25 in earnings per share for the Federal Express business.
Market context and valuation signals
FedEx has gained 62.14% over the past six months and is trading near a 52-week high of $380.86. The stock’s current P/E ratio stands at 20.23. Data from InvestingPro cited by Truist indicates the shares may be overvalued versus their Fair Value, and technical indicators point to overbought conditions.
Truist’s segment-level valuation
In its analysis, Truist values the FedEx Freight business at approximately $74 to $78 per share. Using the February 12 closing price of $369.46, that Freight valuation implies the legacy Federal Express business is being valued at roughly $290 to $295 per share.
The firm then demonstrates valuation sensitivity to the company’s $25 EPS target for Federal Express. Applying a discounted multiple of about 17x to that $25 target implies an approximate $425 valuation for the Federal Express business alone - a figure Truist frames as representing more than 45% upside when considered independently of the Freight segment. Truist further argues that a multiple in the 18x to 19x range, which it believes better reflects an 8% margin profile and a mid-teens EPS compound annual growth rate, would push the implied valuation for Federal Express into a $450 to $475 range - representing in excess of 55% potential upside under those assumptions.
Other recent corporate and analyst developments
FedEx has announced a quarterly cash dividend of $1.45 per share, payable on April 1, 2026, unchanged from prior quarters. The company is also joining a consortium that will invest $2.6 billion to acquire InPost, a European parcel locker and home delivery provider. Bernstein SocGen Group highlighted that acquisition move when it reiterated an Outperform rating and set a $427.00 price target.
Several analysts have moved their targets higher of late. Stephens raised its price target to $405.00 from $330.00 after insights from FedEx’s Investor Day event, while UBS lifted its target to $412.00 from $314.00, pointing to potential benefits from pricing and cost control measures. These adjustments accompany FedEx’s own stated goals of achieving $25 in earnings per share by 2029 and generating $16 billion in free cash flow over the next three years.
Conclusion
Truist’s upgrade reflects a view that segment-level valuation and the company’s 2029 earnings ambitions are not fully priced into the shares. Other analysts have also increased targets, and recent corporate actions including the dividend declaration and the InPost consortium investment have provided additional context for those bullish revisions. At the same time, InvestingPro metrics and technical indicators flagged in the market commentary indicate tension between longer-term earnings expectations and nearer-term valuation signals.