Analyst Ratings February 11, 2026

Truist Cuts Shopify Price Target to $110, Cites Valuation Compression Despite Solid Q4 Results

Analyst keeps Hold rating as multiple contraction offsets operational momentum and AI defensibility claims

By Marcus Reed SHOP
Truist Cuts Shopify Price Target to $110, Cites Valuation Compression Despite Solid Q4 Results
SHOP

Truist Securities reduced its price target on Shopify to $110 from $155 while retaining a Hold rating, pointing to broad valuation compression across its coverage universe even as Shopify reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results. The updated target is close to the stock's current trading level, and analysts note both attractive medium-term valuation metrics and near-term multiple risk.

Key Points

  • Truist Securities cut Shopify's price target to $110 from $155 and retained a Hold rating; the new target is close to the stock's trading price of $115.23.
  • Shopify reported solid fourth-quarter 2025 results, with GMV up 31% year-over-year (29% constant currency), EPS of $0.57 beating the $0.51 estimate, and revenue of $3.67 billion topping the $3.59 billion forecast.
  • Valuation dynamics drove the revision - Shopify trades at a P/E of 85.07 and was described as experiencing "material valuation compression," though its EV/2027 sales (~8x) and EV/gross profit (~17x) were cited as more attractive than in prior periods.

Truist Securities has revised down its target price for Shopify to $110.00 from $155.00 while keeping a Hold rating on the shares. The new target sits near Shopify's trading price of $115.23, and the stock has fallen roughly 21% year-to-date, according to InvestingPro data.

The firm attributed the lowered target primarily to what it characterized as "material valuation compression across coverage," even as it acknowledged that Shopify's operational fundamentals remain strong. Truist flagged the elevated price-to-earnings multiple - Shopify trades at a P/E of 85.07 as reported by InvestingPro - noting that this is a high earnings multiple against near-term growth expectations.

On the results front, Truist pointed to Shopify's fourth-quarter performance as evidence of continued business momentum. The company reported gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth of 31% year-over-year, or 29% on a constant currency basis, along with accelerating payments penetration and continuing progress in international and enterprise segments.

Despite those data points, Truist observed that the roughly 9% decline in Shopify's share price after the earnings release "feels disconnected" given the company's asserted AI defensibility and the positive fundamental read-throughs from its results.

Valuation, however, remains central to Truist's reassessment. The analyst house noted that Shopify's valuation "are not as elevated as have been for some time," and highlighted multiples it views as more compelling: approximately 8x enterprise value to 2027 sales and about 17x enterprise value to gross profit. Those figures, Truist said, make the risk/reward profile "more interesting" for what it termed a "premium scaled commerce platform business well positioned to capitalize on agentic commerce."

The earnings release itself showed Shopify beating consensus forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025. The company reported earnings per share of $0.57 versus an expected $0.51, and revenue of $3.67 billion compared with an anticipated $3.59 billion.

Other analyst activity noted alongside Truist's action included Canaccord Genuity's reduction of its price target on Shopify to $165 from $185, while maintaining a Buy rating. Canaccord said the adjustment reflects concerns about potential AI-driven disruption in the software sector, even as it described "a lot of momentum" for Shopify.

Overall, the juxtaposition of strong quarterly results and downward pressure on valuation underpinned Truist's move to lower its price objective while keeping a cautious stance on the shares.

Risks

  • Valuation compression across coverage creates downside risk for stock multiples, impacting investor returns in the e-commerce and software sectors.
  • Potential AI-driven disruption in the software sector is cited as a concern by analysts, presenting uncertainty for platform providers and enterprise software vendors.
  • Near-term stock volatility following earnings - evidenced by an approximately 9% post-results decline - highlights market sensitivity to guidance and sentiment in commerce and payments markets.

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