Analyst Ratings February 10, 2026

Texas Pacific Land Keeps Buy Rating at Texas Capital as West Texas Data Center Talks Advance

Analysts point to a potential 250 MW Google-linked project and a new Bolt Data partnership as catalysts for the landowner's near-term outlook

By Caleb Monroe TPL GOOGL
Texas Pacific Land Keeps Buy Rating at Texas Capital as West Texas Data Center Talks Advance
TPL GOOGL

Texas Capital Securities has reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $390.00 price target on Texas Pacific Land Trust (NYSE: TPL) amid reports that Bolt Data and Energy is in discussions with Alphabet's Google on a major West Texas data center. The talks and a new strategic agreement with Bolt reinforce revenue and development pathways for TPL, though InvestingPro's Fair Value model flags the stock as possibly overvalued at current levels.

Key Points

  • Texas Capital Securities reaffirmed a Buy rating and set a $390.00 price target on Texas Pacific Land Trust (NYSE: TPL).
  • Bolt Data & Energy is reported to be negotiating with Alphabet's Google on a potential 250 MW data center in West Texas, with TPL land cited as a potential source of power and water.
  • Texas Pacific Land entered a strategic partnership with Bolt including a $50 million investment, equity, warrants, and a right of first refusal to supply water; a three-for-one stock split is set with an effective date of December 22, 2025.

Texas Capital Securities has reiterated a Buy recommendation and maintained a $390.00 price target on Texas Pacific Land Trust (NYSE: TPL) after market reports linked the company's West Texas acreage to potential large-scale data center development.

Recent reporting, as relayed to Texas Capital, indicates that Bolt Data and Energy is negotiating with Alphabet's Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) on the construction of a substantial data center campus in West Texas. The discussions reportedly include consideration of a 250 MW commitment from Google. Texas Pacific Land's holdings were cited as potentially able to supply Bolt Data and Energy with the required power and water resources to support cooling and operations for such a project.

Texas Capital's analysis underscores how these potential developments could enhance the utility of TPL's land holdings. Analyst Derrick Whitfield commented that the situation helps "crystallize the value proposition of BTM solutions in remote locations in East Texas and West Texas." The firm described the opportunity as one among several TPL is pursuing to facilitate the build-out of power and data center capacity in the region.

Market reaction has reflected investor interest in these opportunities: TPL shares have risen 11.42% over the last week and 30.79% over the past six months. At a current share price of $387.80, the stock sits close to Texas Capital's $390.00 target. InvestingPro data, however, indicates the stock may be overvalued according to its proprietary Fair Value model.

Texas Pacific Land's financial profile was highlighted in the analysis. InvestingPro assigns the company a financial health rating of "GREAT" and notes an impressive 94.13% gross profit margin. The company, with a market capitalization of $26.7 billion, has a history of dividend payments stretching 12 consecutive years.

In discrete corporate developments, Texas Pacific Land recently formalized a strategic partnership with Bolt Data & Energy to advance large-scale data center campuses on TPL land. The agreement includes a $50 million investment from Texas Pacific Land and grants the company an equity stake, warrants, and a right of first refusal to supply water to projects affiliated with Bolt.

Share structure changes are also planned: Texas Pacific Land has set an effective date of December 22, 2025, for a three-for-one stock split, with a record date of December 12. The split will triple the number of outstanding shares without changing the company's aggregate market value.

Separately, KeyBanc has initiated coverage of Texas Pacific Land Trust with an Overweight rating and a $1,050 price target. In its initiation, KeyBanc highlighted TPL's large ownership of land and royalty interests in Texas and emphasized the company's revenue streams, which include oil and natural gas royalties, water royalties, water sales, and surface leases.


Contextual note: The information above reflects the developments and analyst commentary reported to Texas Capital and the company disclosures on the Bolt collaboration and stock split. Where valuation signals diverge, market participants may weigh the near-term project potential against InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment.

Risks

  • Valuation risk: InvestingPro's Fair Value model indicates TPL may be overvalued at current prices, which could temper upside even if development proceeds - this mainly affects equity investors and the real estate/land ownership sector.
  • Execution and project risk: Negotiations between Bolt Data & Energy and Google are ongoing; if the project does not materialize, anticipated revenue or development catalysts could be delayed or not occur - impacting data center construction, utilities, and local services sectors.
  • Concentration of revenue sources: KeyBanc emphasized TPL's dependence on royalties, water sales, and surface leases; fluctuations in these markets would affect TPL's revenue profile - relevant to energy, utilities, and land-lease markets.

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