TD Cowen has reiterated its Buy recommendation and set a $73.00 price target on Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE:BROS), reaffirming the coffee chain as one of the firm's "Best Idea" selections. The stated target represents roughly 43% upside from the cited trading price of $50.86, while remaining below the analyst high target of $95. InvestingPro data cited by the firm shows a strong consensus recommendation of 1.38 on the stock.
The brokerage highlighted Dutch Bros as a "positive sales revision story," pointing to a strong fourth-quarter same-store sales performance that the analyst sees as helping to alleviate investor concerns about potential slowdowns amid rising competitive pressure. TD Cowen emphasized the company's recent revenue momentum, noting 28.93% revenue growth over the last twelve months and a five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 40%.
In support of its view on ongoing sales strength, TD Cowen referenced Dutch Bros' first-quarter same-store sales guidance of 4% to 6% as evidence the company is continuing to expand comparable-store traffic and sales despite competition within the specialty coffee market. The note also described the company's 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance as "overly conservative" relative to Dutch Bros' historical guidance patterns, suggesting there could be upside to current consensus financial projections if the company follows past trends.
Dutch Bros operates drive-thru coffee locations across the United States and has been growing its footprint in recent years, competing in the specialty coffee segment against larger, well-known chains. The company's most recent quarterly results reinforced the upbeat sales narrative: for the fourth quarter of 2025 Dutch Bros reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.17, above analyst expectations of $0.09, and revenue of $444 million, topping the anticipated $423.79 million. System-wide same-store sales rose 7.7%, outpacing both Street consensus and investor expectations, as noted by KeyBanc analyst Christopher Carril.
Following the strong results, several equity research actions followed. RBC Capital reduced its price target to $75 from $80 while maintaining an Outperform rating. KeyBanc reiterated an Overweight rating and kept a $77 price target. These moves underscore how the quarter's metrics have prompted positive reassessments among some sell-side analysts, even as market reactions vary.
TD Cowen's maintained Buy rating and $73 target, combined with the cited upside from the quoted share price, reflect the firm's view that Dutch Bros' sales momentum and recent financial beats support continued upside potential. At the same time, the characterization of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance as potentially conservative points to a specific area where actual results could diverge from current consensus numbers if historical patterns repeat.
Summary
TD Cowen kept a Buy rating and a $73 target on Dutch Bros, calling it a "Best Idea" and highlighting strong same-store sales and robust revenue growth. The firm views the company as a positive sales revision story and suggests 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance may be conservative. Dutch Bros reported Q4 2025 results that beat revenue and EPS estimates and delivered 7.7% system-wide same-store sales growth. Other brokers adjusted price targets and maintained favorable ratings following the results.
Key points
- TD Cowen reaffirmed Buy and a $73 price target on Dutch Bros - implies roughly 43% upside from the $50.86 price cited.
- Company posted Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.17 versus $0.09 expected and revenue of $444 million versus $423.79 million expected; system-wide same-store sales grew 7.7%.
- First-quarter same-store sales guidance of 4% to 6% and recent revenue growth of 28.93% year-over-year support the view of ongoing sales strength; five-year revenue CAGR is 40%.
Risks and uncertainties
- Competitive pressure in the specialty coffee market could affect sales momentum - this impacts the consumer discretionary and restaurant sectors.
- Guidance volatility and the possibility that actual results diverge from current projections - particularly if 2026 adjusted EBITDA does not exceed conservative guidance - could affect investor expectations in the retail and restaurant segments.