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Analyst Ratings February 12, 2026

TD Cowen Sticks with Hold on McDonald’s, Keeps $320 Target Amid Mixed Signals

Analyst trims forward EPS forecasts as higher interest, G&A and capex guidance temper buyback expectations

By Caleb Monroe MCD
TD Cowen Sticks with Hold on McDonald’s, Keeps $320 Target Amid Mixed Signals
MCD

TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating on McDonald’s with a $320 price target, citing stronger-than-expected same-store sales across segments but trimming 2026-2027 EPS estimates by 1% because of higher interest and G&A guidance. The firm also flagged elevated capital expenditure plans that could curb share repurchases. McDonald’s recent fourth-quarter 2025 results beat expectations, prompting other firms to raise price targets, while TD Cowen sees a U.S. specialty beverage rollout as a possible near-term catalyst.

Key Points

  • TD Cowen kept a Hold rating on McDonald 's stock with a $320 price target while trimming 2026-2027 EPS estimates by 1% due to higher interest and G&A guidance - impacts equity analysts and investor expectations in the restaurant and consumer discretionary sectors.
  • McDonald reported better-than-expected same-store sales across its three segments, with particular strength in International Operated Markets and the U.S. - positive for top-line momentum in the restaurant sector.
  • Higher-than-expected capital expenditure guidance may reduce share buybacks, affecting shareholder returns and market perception of cash deployment in the equities market.

TD Cowen reiterated a Hold rating on McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) and kept a $320.00 price target, according to a research note issued Thursday. The stock was trading at $323.21, roughly 1% under its 52-week peak of $328.06, while the analyst consensus remains a moderate buy with an average rating of 2.16.

The firm highlighted that McDonald’s delivered "better than expected" same-store sales in each of its three business segments, singling out particularly strong results in International Operated Markets (IOM) and the U.S. While the company’s market capitalization sits near $230 billion, reported revenue growth over the past twelve months was modest at 1.25%.

Despite the positive same-store sales momentum, TD Cowen trimmed its earnings-per-share projections for 2026-2027 by 1%. The revision reflects the firm higher interest expense guidance and elevated general and administrative (G&A) costs outlined by McDonald .

The research note also called out McDonald 's higher-than-expected capital expenditure guidance, which the firm says is likely to reduce the pace of share repurchases relative to prior expectations.

TD Cowen noted a potential operational catalyst on the horizon: a U.S. specialty beverage launch the firm expects in the Spring, though the company has not provided a specific timing in its public communications.

Separately, McDonald 's fourth-quarter 2025 results showed stronger-than-expected performance across several metrics. Same-store sales topped consensus, especially within International Operated Markets and International Developmental Licensed segments, and adjusted EBITDA exceeded expectations.

Following the quarterly release, multiple brokerages revised their price targets upward. Barclays raised its target to $380, Truist Securities moved its target to $370 while keeping a Buy stance, Piper Sandler and RBC Capital lifted their targets to $325 and $330 respectively, and KeyBanc Capital Markets reiterated an Overweight rating with a $340 target. Several of these firms cited effective value-oriented strategies and marketing execution as supporting their higher targets.

Context for investors

  • Strong same-store sales provide near-term operational momentum across McDonald 's geographic segments, supporting top-line resilience.
  • Modest revenue growth over the past year (1.25%) contrasts with the outperformance in comparable-store trends, suggesting uneven drivers of company-wide revenue.
  • Analyst reactions after Q4 2025 have been predominantly positive on valuation, with several firms raising targets while TD Cowen retains a more cautious Hold view.

The balance of stronger sales and the company's updated expense and capital plans frames the current outlook: operational gains have been evident, but elevated interest, G&A and capex guidance are weighing on forward profitability assumptions.

Risks

  • Elevated interest expense and G&A expectations that prompted a 1% cut to 2026-2027 EPS estimates - risk to profitability projections for McDonald and implications for restaurant-sector earnings forecasts.
  • Increased capital expenditures could lower share repurchase activity, creating uncertainty around shareholder-return pathways and influencing investor sentiment in the broader stock market.
  • Timing of the U.S. specialty beverage launch is not definitively disclosed; while TD Cowen anticipates a Spring introduction, uncertainty in rollout timing is a potential timing risk for any related sales catalyst in the consumer sector.

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