Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

TD Cowen Sticks With Hold on eBay, Keeps $84 Target as Mixed Analyst Views Persist

Firm projects double-digit revenue growth for Q4 2025 amid FX tailwinds; regulatory probe and divergent broker views present mixed signals

By Derek Hwang EBAY
TD Cowen Sticks With Hold on eBay, Keeps $84 Target as Mixed Analyst Views Persist
EBAY

TD Cowen has reaffirmed a Hold rating on eBay and left its $84 price target unchanged after updating its model through 2031. The firm expects double-digit revenue growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by favorable foreign exchange effects and projected gross merchandise volume (GMV) gains, while other brokers offer divergent assessments and a French investigation raises regulatory uncertainty.

Key Points

  • TD Cowen reaffirmed a Hold rating on eBay with an unchanged $84 price target after rolling its model forward to 2031.
  • The firm forecasts double-digit revenue growth for Q4 2025, projecting 7.8% GMV growth year-over-year and citing a 180 basis point foreign exchange tailwind and U.S. consumer strength.
  • Brokerage opinions diverge: Citizens retains a Market Outperform view with a $115 target, while BNP Paribas Exane starts coverage at Neutral with a $90 target; a French investigation into possible illicit goods on the platform introduces regulatory uncertainty.

TD Cowen has reiterated a Hold rating on eBay Inc. and maintained its $84.00 price target, keeping its valuation and near-term outlook intact after a model roll-forward to 2031 estimates. The firm projects double-digit revenue growth for eBay in the fourth quarter of 2025, citing an advantageous currency environment as a key contributor to the gain.

According to InvestingPro data, eBay was trading at $79.95 at the time of the report, which the data service flags as slightly below the company’s Fair Value estimate. Analyst price targets on the stock span from $62 to $115, and the consensus recommendation sits at 2.71 on the scale used, consistent with a Hold view.

TD Cowen’s model anticipates reported gross merchandise volume growth of 7.8% year-over-year for Q4 2025. That GMV projection sits above the midpoint of eBay’s guidance and is 0.2 percentage points higher than consensus. The brokerage attributes the assumed GMV outperformance to continued U.S. consumer resilience, a 180 basis point tailwind from foreign exchange, and a set of strategic initiatives the company is executing. Those positives are noted as being partially offset by the impact of de minimus exemptions.

The firm’s forecasts extend beyond GMV: TD Cowen expects revenue to increase 11.4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, an acceleration relative to the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted operating income is projected to rise 7.0% year-over-year, while earnings per share are forecast to grow 8.7% year-over-year, a result the firm says will be supported in part by a lower share count.

eBay’s near-term financial profile is also summarized in the report. InvestingPro data cited a gross profit margin of 71.6% for the company. On the balance sheet, eBay operates with a moderate leverage position, showing a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.51, and a solid Altman Z-Score of 7.13, which TD Cowen notes as indicative of financial stability.

Investors will face an earnings event shortly: eBay is scheduled to report results on February 25, 2026, a date that the firm’s note puts seven days out from the report. TD Cowen did not change its $84 price target as part of its updates.

The company’s outlook and stock narrative have drawn differing responses from other brokers. Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating for eBay, keeping a $115 price target and expressing a view that the company will exceed fourth-quarter 2025 GMV expectations on the back of stronger demand in categories such as collectibles and luxury resale. By contrast, BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $90 price target, recognizing eBay’s sizable role in global e-commerce but urging caution on the stock’s prospective growth path.

Separately, eBay is the subject of an investigation by French authorities over suspicions that illicit goods were being sold on its platform. That inquiry was confirmed by the French prosecutor’s office following a report in Le Parisien. The investigation represents a regulatory and compliance uncertainty noted alongside the array of broker perspectives.


Context for investors

  • eBay’s stock sits modestly below fair value based on InvestingPro’s metrics, while analyst targets range widely from $62 to $115.
  • TD Cowen’s forecasts reflect double-digit revenue growth for Q4 2025 and incremental GMV strength driven by U.S. demand and a 180 basis point FX tailwind, partly offset by de minimus exemptions.
  • Broker views vary, with Citizens notably more bullish and BNP Paribas Exane more measured; a French probe adds a regulatory overhang.

Risks

  • Regulatory and compliance risk from an ongoing French investigation into suspected illicit goods sales on eBay’s platform - this could affect legal and operational costs for the e-commerce sector and investor sentiment.
  • Execution and growth risk tied to eBay’s ability to translate strategic initiatives into sustainable GMV and revenue gains - relevant to the e-commerce and consumer discretionary sectors.
  • Market and valuation risk given the range of analyst targets ($62 to $115) and a consensus Hold recommendation, which may reflect differing views on growth trajectory and investor expectations in equity markets.

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