TD Cowen has reaffirmed a Buy recommendation on Amgen Inc. and set a $420.00 price target, citing the clinical promise of dazodalibep as a major potential value driver. The $420 target implies roughly 12% upside from Amgen's most recently referenced share price of $376.35, and comes as the stock trades near a 52-week high of $385.12.
The firm pointed to data from the Phase 2 ALISS study as a distinguishing factor for dazodalibep. According to TD Cowen, the treatment is the only therapy to produce positive and statistically significant Phase 2 ALISS results in both symptomatic and systemic Sjogren’s disease cohorts. The reported effect sizes were a -1.3-point placebo-adjusted change from baseline on the ESSPRI measure for symptomatic patients and a -2.2-point placebo-adjusted least squares mean change from baseline on ESSDAI for patients with systemic manifestations.
TD Cowen noted that an estimated 85% of Sjogren’s disease patients carry a high symptom burden and that there are currently no approved treatments for the condition. The firm expects Phase 3 results for systemic Sjogren’s disease in the second half of 2026 and for symptomatic disease in late 2026 or early 2027.
The analyst group described dazodalibep as unique among candidates in showing benefit across the two main patient segments identified in Sjogren’s disease - symptomatic patients, who account for roughly 60% to 85% of the population, and those with systemic disease manifestations, representing about 15% to 40%. Dazodalibep is characterized as a CD40L antagonist delivered intravenously either quarterly or every two weeks.
On the commercial side, TD Cowen estimated that Sjogren’s disease in moderate-to-severe settings could represent a $10 billion to $20 billion opportunity, based on the potential for orphan-like pricing. The firm noted this opportunity against Amgen’s broader financial profile, including a market capitalization near $203 billion and revenue growth close to 10% over the last twelve months.
InvestingPro data cited by the firm indicated a favorable PEG ratio of 0.3 for Amgen, a measure that TD Cowen interprets as the stock trading at a relatively low price-to-earnings ratio when compared with earnings growth potential. The firm also referenced availability of an InvestingPro Pro Research Report for investors seeking deeper analytical coverage.
Market reaction and analyst sentiment have been mixed despite the bullish TD Cowen view. Amgen’s fourth-quarter earnings topped expectations and the company provided strong fiscal year 2026 guidance, prompting several firms to update their valuations.
- Guggenheim raised its price target to $347, citing the solid earnings report and supportive guidance.
- Cantor Fitzgerald increased its target to $350, pointing to a top-line beat of $396 million and earnings per share that exceeded expectations by $0.60.
- Freedom Capital Markets downgraded Amgen from Buy to Hold while raising its price target to $375, acknowledging the company’s core growth drivers and momentum with newer products.
- Piper Sandler raised its price target to $432 and kept an Overweight rating following discussions with Amgen senior management on expansion opportunities and ongoing studies.
- BofA Securities reiterated an Underperform rating with a $304 price target, noting several upcoming catalysts that could influence Amgen’s future performance.
These divergent analyst actions underline varying assessments of Amgen’s near-term and long-term prospects, with TD Cowen emphasizing the potential transformative impact of dazodalibep should Phase 3 results confirm Phase 2 findings, and other firms balancing that potential against a range of operational and market catalysts.
What this means for markets and investors
TD Cowen’s stance places significant emphasis on Amgen’s pipeline as a lever for future growth, particularly in the pharmaceuticals and healthcare sectors where breakthrough therapies can shift valuation dynamics materially. The potential commercial scale for a successful Sjogren’s treatment could also have implications for biotech and specialty pharmaceuticals investors focused on orphan-like pricing and high unmet need indications.