TD Cowen revised its view of Medpace Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: MEDP) on Tuesday, upgrading the research rating to Hold from Sell and reducing the 12-month price target to $419 from $462. The updated target sits near the companys prevailing share price of $428.18, which has fallen 23.76% year-to-date.
Analyst Charles Rhyee framed the move in valuation terms, saying Medpace has re-rated down from a peak multiple and that the current market price appears to reflect fair value. TD Cowen reinforced that assessment with valuation snapshots: Medpace trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.01 and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 20.94, according to InvestingPro data cited by the firm.
On fundamentals, TD Cowen expects Medpace to see 2026 bookings benefit from an improving macro environment for biotech. The firm also noted Medpaces concentrated focus on biotech as a competitive angle that could allow it to capture and retain a greater share of AI-driven cost savings relative to some peers.
At the same time, the analyst highlighted that uncertainty around how AI will ultimately affect the contract research organization model could be a headwind for the shares. TD Cowen quantified the new target as implying a valuation of roughly 25 times 2026 earnings per share under its assumptions.
The Cowen action arrives after Medpace reported a strong fourth quarter for fiscal 2025. The company posted earnings per share of $4.67, topping consensus expectations of $4.18, and reported revenue of $708.5 million versus the anticipated $689.34 million.
Market reaction and analyst response have been varied. Jefferies upgraded Medpace from Hold to Buy, pointing to an improvement in biotech funding during the second half of 2025. Baird moved its rating from Neutral to Outperform, influenced in part by prospects tied to artificial intelligence. By contrast, BMO Capital reduced its price target to $460 from $600 while keeping a Market Perform rating, even as it noted Medpaces 2026 guidance came in slightly ahead of expectations. Leerink Partners also trimmed its target to $485, citing elevated quarterly cancellations that could pressure the 2026 outlook.
Taken together, these developments show a range of analyst perspectives on Medpaces near-term trajectory. Some firms are responding to improving biotech funding and potential efficiency gains tied to AI, while others are dialing back targets because of cancellation trends or cautious assumptions about how AI will reshape demand and margins. The mix of upgrades, downgrades and target cuts underscores ongoing uncertainty about how the companys 2026 bookings and profitability will evolve.
Investors monitoring Medpace will be watching both incoming biotech funding trends and how AI-related efficiency changes translate into bookings and margin outcomes for contract research organizations.