Analyst Ratings February 12, 2026

TD Cowen Lowers T-Mobile Price Target to $252 Citing Mixed Near-Term Outlook

Analyst keeps Buy rating as carriers move away from phone KPIs and T-Mobile prioritizes capital returns over convergence

By Jordan Park TMUS
TD Cowen Lowers T-Mobile Price Target to $252 Citing Mixed Near-Term Outlook
TMUS

TD Cowen has cut its 12-month price target on T-Mobile US to $252 from $263 while retaining a Buy rating, following the carrier's fourth-quarter 2025 results and mixed guidance for 2026. Despite slightly weaker phone subscriber additions and higher churn, the company reported earnings and revenue that beat expectations and continues to trade below its estimated fair value, according to InvestingPro data.

Key Points

  • TD Cowen lowered its 12-month price target on T-Mobile to $252 from $263 while maintaining a Buy rating.
  • T-Mobile beat fourth-quarter 2025 expectations with EPS of $2.14 and revenue of $24.33 billion, but phone subscriber additions were slightly below forecasts amid higher churn.
  • The carrier plans a $30 billion capital return program for 2026 and 2027 and is de-emphasizing convergence with other telecommunications services as the industry matures.

TD Cowen reduced its target for T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) to $252.00 from $263.00 but kept a Buy rating on the stock. That revised target remains above the company's current share price of $209.54, and InvestingPro data notes the stock is trading below its Fair Value, indicating potential upside from current levels.

Results and near-term subscriber dynamics

The change in TD Cowen's target follows T-Mobile's fourth-quarter 2025 financial report, which showed slightly lower-than-expected phone subscriber additions. Management attributed the shortfall in part to higher customer churn rates. At the same time, the company delivered results that topped Wall Street expectations for the quarter: earnings per share of $2.14 versus a $2.04 forecast, and revenue of $24.33 billion compared with estimated revenue of $24.18 billion.

Valuation and market size

T-Mobile's market capitalization stands at $232 billion and the shares carry a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.7. Those metrics accompany analysts' continued interest in the stock and a range of price targets from other firms, which, according to InvestingPro, extend from $220 to $310.

Analyst perspective and strategic emphasis

TD Cowen analyst Greg Williams characterized the company's outlook as mixed for 2026, while noting management gave a more favorable updated outlook for 2027. Williams emphasized that T-Mobile is de-emphasizing convergence with other telecommunications services and instead is placing focus on a planned $30 billion capital return program spanning 2026 and 2027.

Williams also pointed out an industry shift: T-Mobile and other carriers are moving away from phone-focused key performance indicators as the sector matures. He described the broader telecommunications space as remaining in "decent shape despite the frenetic activity."

Market reaction and peer commentary

Even with an earnings beat, T-Mobile's stock fell in pre-market trading following the report. Separately, Scotiabank trimmed its price target on T-Mobile to $266 from $270.50 but maintained a Sector Outperform rating, citing the company's strong position driven by an advanced 5G network strategy and compelling customer value.

Analyst consensus and investor implications

Analyst coverage remains generally bullish despite variations in individual targets. InvestingPro aggregates these viewpoints and notes price targets in the $220 to $310 range, reflecting divergent assessments of the company's near-term subscriber momentum, longer-term growth trajectory, and capital allocation plans.


Bottom line

TD Cowen's adjustment to a $252 price target reflects a more cautious near-term view amid elevated churn and softer phone additions, balanced against solid quarterly results, a sizable capital return program, and an industry-wide shift away from handset KPIs.

Risks

  • Higher customer churn and weaker-than-expected phone subscriber additions could continue to pressure telecom operating metrics and near-term stock performance - impacts telecom and technology sectors.
  • Mixed guidance for 2026 introduces uncertainty around near-term growth and could influence investor sentiment in the communications services sector.
  • Divergent analyst price targets and pre-market share declines after the quarter suggest volatility in market expectations for network investment returns and capital allocation strategies - relevant to equity markets and fixed-income investors tracking telecom issuers.

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