TD Cowen has trimmed its price target on The Simply Good Foods Group to $20.00 from $24.00 and maintained a Hold rating on the shares. The move follows a period of steep share price weakness: the stock has declined roughly 53% over the past year and was trading at $16.61, well below its 52-week high of $38.79.
The firm’s analyst, Robert Moskow, pointed to a deterioration in retail sales momentum as the central driver of the more cautious outlook. Retail sales growth reversed into negative territory over the last 12 weeks, with January registering particular weakness, according to Moskow. In response to those trends, TD Cowen shifted its fiscal year 2026 revenue and EBITDA estimates toward the low end of Simply Good Foods’ guidance ranges.
InvestingPro data referenced in the company analysis indicates that six sell-side analysts have reduced their earnings projections for the upcoming period. Investors are awaiting the company’s next quarterly report, scheduled for April 8, as they look for further clarity on top-line trends and margin trajectories.
The acquired OWYN brand was singled out by TD Cowen as showing especially weak sales performance, a factor that exacerbates concerns around the company’s near-term growth profile. While management has publicly reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance since the unexpected CEO change announced in January, recent retail sales patterns led TD Cowen to moderate its expectations.
The reduction in the price target - from $24.00 to $20.00 - reflects TD Cowen’s more guarded view on the company’s near-term operating environment, even as the firm left its rating unchanged.
Separately, the company announced the addition of Joseph E. Scalzo to its board of directors following the annual meeting. Scalzo, who previously served as CEO of the company, returned to the board to fill a vacancy and will not receive additional compensation for his board role.
Other analysts have taken a different stance amid these developments. Bernstein SocGen Group has reiterated an Outperform rating with a $31.00 price target and noted that the company has reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, indicating no material changes to earnings estimates in Bernstein’s view. Mizuho likewise maintained an Outperform rating and a $30.00 price target after Scalzo’s board appointment, suggesting that his return could help address distribution challenges at the Atkins brand.
These contrasting analyst views and the boardroom change illustrate a mixed picture for Simply Good Foods: management is holding guidance steady while certain sales indicators and brand-level performance have prompted at least one major analyst to pare back near-term expectations. Market participants will likely watch the April 8 earnings release closely for confirmation of whether recent retail softness is transitory or indicative of a broader trend.
Next event: Quarterly earnings report scheduled for April 8.