TD Cowen has reduced its price target for Shoals Technologies Group to $10, down from $11, while continuing to recommend the stock as a Buy. The brokerage firms revised target is anchored to roughly 13 times its estimate of Shoalss 2027 enterprise value to EBITDA. Market data in the article indicates the shares are trading at $6.90, implying potential upside relative to that target, and an analysis referenced in the original coverage found the company appears undervalued against its Fair Value.
The firm identified a set of near-term dynamics that underpin the lowered valuation. Shoals is in a transitional phase as it moves production to a new factory and brings new products, customers and end markets on line. According to the note, those shifts and the evolving product mix are margin-dilutive. As a result, Cowen now anticipates the companys gross margins will settle in the low to mid-30% range going forward, below the last twelve months reported gross profit margin of 36.82%.
Despite the margin headwinds, Cowen remains constructive on Shoalss growth prospects. The firm reiterated guidance calling for more than 20% growth in both revenue and EBITDA for 2026 and highlighted the companys robust backlog in battery energy storage systems as a supportive demand indicator.
Shoals Technologies Group is described as a manufacturer of electrical balance of system solutions used in solar energy projects and in battery energy storage systems. Cowens price target methodology - approximately 13x 2027 EV/EBITDA - reflects the brokerages forward-looking view on enterprise profitability after the transition is complete.
Recent company results were mixed. In fourth-quarter 2025 financials, Shoals reported earnings per share of $0.10, missing the consensus estimate of $0.13 by 23.08%. Revenue for the quarter came in at $148.3 million, above the forecast of $145.46 million, a 1.97% positive surprise. The combination of a revenue beat and an EPS miss contributed to a negative response from investors following the release.
In sum, the analyst action reflects a balance between medium-term growth expectations and near-term margin pressure tied to operational changes. The valuation cut is modest and the Buy rating remains in place, leaving room for upside should execution on the factory move and product ramps proceed as planned and margins recover toward prior levels.
Key points
- TD Cowen reduced its price target on Shoals to $10 from $11 while maintaining a Buy rating; the target is based on ~13x 2027 EV/EBITDA.
- The company is undergoing a factory relocation and ramp of new products, customers and markets - actions the analyst says are margin-dilutive and lead to gross margin guidance in the low-to-mid 30% range versus a 36.82% LTM gross profit margin.
- Cowen remains constructive on Shoalss guidance for greater than 20% revenue and EBITDA growth in 2026 and notes a strong battery energy storage system backlog.
Risks and uncertainties
- Margin pressure from the factory move and product mix changes could compress profitability - a risk for the company and for suppliers and contractors in the solar and battery storage sectors.
- Execution risk around the factory relocation and the ramp of new products and customers could affect timing of margin recovery and revenue realization.
- Near-term investor sentiment is vulnerable following the Q4 2025 EPS miss, which may amplify share-price volatility for stakeholders exposed to renewable energy equipment manufacturers.