Analyst Ratings February 12, 2026

TD Cowen Lowers Rigetti Rating to Hold Citing Valuation and Near-Term EPS Pressure

Analyst keeps $360 price target while flagging elevated valuation, weak financial health and modest EPS downward adjustments for 2026

By Maya Rios RGTI
TD Cowen Lowers Rigetti Rating to Hold Citing Valuation and Near-Term EPS Pressure
RGTI

TD Cowen reduced its rating on Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) from Buy to Hold in a research note released Thursday, maintaining a $360 price target but warning that the stock is richly valued and that consensus earnings per share for 2026 may need to be trimmed modestly. The downgrade follows solid fourth-quarter 2025 results and a major $8.4 million order from India’s C-DAC, though the company’s financial health is rated WEAK and its Price/Book multiple sits at 14.6x.

Key Points

  • TD Cowen downgraded Rigetti from Buy to Hold and left the price target unchanged at $360, citing high valuation and weak financial health.
  • Rigetti beat fourth-quarter 2025 EPS estimates with $3.12 versus a $3.04 consensus and reported stronger-than-expected revenue performance.
  • The company announced an $8.4 million order from India’s C-DAC for a 108-qubit system, but delayed the Cepheus-1-108Q launch to the end of Q1 2026 for further testing.

TD Cowen downgraded Rigetti Computing Inc. (NASDAQ:RGTI) from Buy to Hold in a research note released Thursday, while preserving a $360 price target. The firm pointed to an elevated valuation and what it describes as weak overall financial health as central considerations behind the move.

The note highlights that, per InvestingPro data, Rigetti currently trades at a Price/Book multiple of 14.6x and appears overvalued relative to Fair Value estimates. InvestingPro also classifies the company’s overall financial health as WEAK.

Those valuation and balance sheet considerations come despite operational strengths reported by the company. Rigetti posted fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $3.12, beating the consensus estimate of $3.04, and delivered stronger top-line performance than expected.

TD Cowen pointed to robust comparative metrics across global markets, driven in part by particularly strong U.S. performance and positive guest counts. Nonetheless, the firm cautioned that weather-related factors are expected to weigh on sequential performance in the first quarter of 2026, contributing to a moderation in near-term momentum.

Market-data cited in the research note shows that Rigetti’s share price has been volatile, with a beta of 1.7. The stock has declined 25.8% year-to-date even after a 39.8% gain over the last 12 months, according to InvestingPro.

While TD Cowen acknowledged that underlying operating trends remain favorable, the firm said commentary from the company indicates that consensus EPS for the first quarter of 2026 and for full-year 2026 should be modestly reduced. The adjustments reflect anticipated pressure from general and administrative expenses as well as interest costs.

Despite the downgrade, TD Cowen left its $360 price target intact, basing that level on largely unchanged 2026 EPS assumptions. The research house emphasized that Rigetti’s competitive advantages, together with identifiable sales drivers, should underpin sustained top-line momentum and continued market share gains.


Separately, Rigetti disclosed an $8.4 million order from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) to supply a 108-qubit quantum computer. TD Cowen and other market observers note that the order represents a meaningful portion of Rigetti’s revenue estimates for 2025.

The company has also revised the timing for its Cepheus-1-108Q quantum computing system, pushing the expected launch to the end of the first quarter of 2026 to allow for additional testing and optimization.

Analysts’ reactions to these developments have varied. B.Riley upgraded Rigetti to Buy and kept a $35 price target; Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $40 target, citing confidence in Rigetti’s approach to qubit scaling; and Wedbush assigned an Outperform rating with a $35 target, pointing to the company’s depth of research and development experience. Collectively, these analyst moves reflect differing perspectives on execution risk, valuation and the company’s long-term positioning in the quantum computing sector.

The TD Cowen downgrade underscores a tension highlighted throughout the note: favorable operating trends and meaningful commercial wins exist alongside valuation metrics and balance-sheet considerations that complicate near-term earnings outlooks. The firm’s assessment suggests investors should weigh both the top-line momentum and the potential margin and financing pressures that may temper consensus EPS expectations for 2026.

Risks

  • Valuation risk - RGTI trades at a Price/Book multiple of 14.6x and appears overvalued versus Fair Value estimates, which could pressure returns for equity investors. (Markets/Technology sector impacted)
  • Earnings risk - TD Cowen expects modest downward revisions to Q1 2026 and full-year 2026 consensus EPS due to higher general and administrative expenses and interest costs, increasing near-term earnings uncertainty. (Corporate earnings and financial sectors impacted)
  • Execution and timing risk - The launch of the Cepheus-1-108Q system has been moved to the end of Q1 2026 to allow more testing, introducing potential delays to revenue recognition tied to that product. (Quantum computing and technology hardware sectors impacted)

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