TD Cowen has reduced its price target on Planet Fitness (PLNT) to $100 from $135, while keeping a Buy rating on the shares. The firm pointed to January weather storms as a material headwind that will be difficult for the company to fully recoup in the near term.
The shares are trading at $82.61, near their 52-week low of $79.18, and are down roughly 24% year-to-date. Market indicators suggest the stock appears undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Max Rakhlenko characterized Planet Fitness’s operating picture as stable, noting that underlying trends were better than the most pessimistic scenarios and that the company’s openings guidance was strong. The company gave a comparable-sales guide in the range of 4-5%, which the firm described as solid. However, the lack of flow-through from those comps was a notable negative surprise, particularly in light of the growth algorithm introduced at the recent Analyst Day.
According to the note, January began in a constructive fashion and was directionally outperforming alternative data sources before the weather turned into a headwind later in the month. Regions that were not affected by storms held momentum, and early signs from February suggest an inflection back to positive trends. Churn, which had been a concern, returned to plan in February after the company adjusted its member messaging, though the analyst cautioned that the new normal for churn may remain slightly higher than prior levels.
TD Cowen sees the company’s openings outlook of 180-190 locations as consistent with expectations and believes it provides a route to reaching roughly 200 openings this year. The firm lowered its fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share estimate to $3.36 from $3.50. That reduction includes a 10-cent hit tied to higher depreciation and amortization and reduced equipment sales, the latter of which the analyst described as non-core to the business.
Despite these near-term headwinds, Planet Fitness continues to display strong margin characteristics - the company reported gross profit margins of 59% - and posted 15% revenue growth over the last twelve months, highlighting the resilience of its franchise model.
Market signals indicate the stock is trading in oversold territory, and five analysts have recently revised earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period. TD Cowen suggested that shares have likely found a floor in the low $80 range and that near-term momentum will be driven by alternative data and on-the-ground checks, both of which the firm says are beginning to inflect positively. The firm also noted that while its estimates are now de-risked, the company has an opportunity to strengthen communication around its model.
In other recent developments, Planet Fitness reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat expectations. The company delivered earnings per share of $0.83, above a consensus of $0.78, and generated revenue of $376.3 million versus a forecast of $366.7 million. Despite those stronger-than-expected results, Stifel lowered its price target on the stock to $105 from $130, while retaining a Buy rating. That adjustment reflected the company’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of 10%, which came in below the previously communicated mid-teens outlook for 2026-2028.
These juxtaposed signals - solid operating fundamentals and margins on one hand, and weather-related volatility and reduced near-term guidance on the other - leave investors parsing a mix of risks and opportunities as they consider the stock.
Context for investors
For market participants focused on consumer discretionary and health-and-fitness exposure, the case studies here speak to the sensitivity of membership-driven businesses to short-term demand shocks and the value of clear, consistent communication about how near-term volatility maps into longer-term unit economics and growth cadence.