TD Cowen has lowered its price target on General Mills (NYSE:GIS) to $45 from $47 while maintaining a Hold recommendation on the stock. The revised target sits marginally above General Mills' current share price of $44.96. The stock is trading near its 52-week low of $42.78, substantially below its 52-week high of $67.35.
The brokerage cited deteriorating consumer sentiment as a primary factor underpinning the change. Management commentary and the analyst note indicate that softer category growth has altered consumer purchase patterns, producing a slower pace of recovery and elevating the cost of generating incremental volume versus earlier expectations. In particular, consumers are increasingly timing their purchases to coincide with promotional activity, compressing baseline volume growth and pressuring margins.
TD Cowen highlighted that growth in Cereal, Snacks and the Dog category has trailed initial projections. The firm also flagged that the Love Made Fresh dog food brand launch has not met expectations in its early stages. Those category-level shortfalls have informed TD Cowen's downward revisions to its earnings outlook for General Mills.
Specifically, the analyst reduced fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2027 earnings per share estimates to $3.46 and $3.41, respectively. Looking further ahead, General Mills itself expects only a modest improvement in the broader category backdrop by fiscal 2027, forecasting growth of around 1%.
In its commentary the analyst quoted management directly: "Management said that weak consumer sentiment weighed on category growth and impacted consumer purchase patterns, resulting in a slower pace and higher cost of volume than initially expected. Consumers are timing their spending to promotional offers." This statement encapsulates the twin pressures of slower organic demand and heightened promotional activity that are constraining top-line recovery and putting strain on profitability.
Despite these headwinds, General Mills is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.66 and offers a substantial dividend yield of 5.43%. The company has a long track record of returning cash to shareholders, having maintained dividend payments for 56 consecutive years.
General Mills has updated its fiscal 2026 outlook in light of the challenging consumer environment. The company now anticipates organic net sales to decline between 1.5% and 2%, a weaker trajectory than its prior guidance that ranged from a 1% decrease to a 1% increase. On the profit side, General Mills expects adjusted operating profit and adjusted diluted earnings per share to decline by 16% to 20% in constant currency, a deterioration versus the earlier estimate of a 10% to 15% decline.
In parallel with the outlook changes, General Mills completed a divestiture in the branded tomato category: Violet Foods LLC acquired the Muir Glen brand of organic tomato products from General Mills. Financial terms for the transaction were not disclosed.
Other sell-side firms have also adjusted their views. Piper Sandler trimmed its price target to $53 from $60 but kept an Overweight rating, citing rising costs that are pressuring margins. Bernstein likewise reduced its price target to $53 and maintained a Market Perform rating following discussions with General Mills' executives. These analyst actions reflect a broader reassessment of the company’s near-term margin and volume prospects amid a tough consumer backdrop.
The combination of softer-than-expected category performance, elevated promotional activity, a delayed product launch, and revised corporate guidance frames the current investment case for General Mills. Investors will be watching whether category demand and volume recovery accelerate from current levels and how effectively the company can manage costs and promotional economics while protecting its dividend policy.
Key points
- TD Cowen lowered its price target on General Mills to $45 from $47 and kept a Hold rating; the target is just above the stock's current price of $44.96.
- Soft consumer sentiment has slowed category growth and led consumers to concentrate purchases around promotions, increasing the cost to drive incremental volume.
- General Mills revised fiscal 2026 guidance downward and expects only modest category improvement to 1% in fiscal 2027; several analysts have cut targets amid margin pressures.
Risks and uncertainties
- Continued weak consumer sentiment could depress category demand further, affecting sectors tied to consumer staples and packaged foods.
- Higher promotional activity and slower volume recovery may compress margins and earnings, weighing on food and retail-related equities.
- Underperforming new product launches, such as Love Made Fresh, pose execution risk for the pet food segment and could delay revenue diversification.
Tags: GIS, Consumer, Food, Earnings, Retail