TD Cowen increased its price target for XPO (NYSE:XPO) to $192.00 from $158.00 on Friday and retained a Buy recommendation on the logistics and transportation company. The revised target implies additional upside relative to XPO's most recent share price of $185.62, though valuation metrics compiled by market data services indicate the stock is trading materially above its Fair Value, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 68.
The brokerage pointed to XPO's fourth-quarter performance as outperforming expectations and highlighted that tonnage in January has exceeded typical seasonal patterns. Those operational trends contributed to a sharp market move for XPO: the shares returned 25.33% over the past week and are up 36.58% year-to-date, according to the cited market data.
TD Cowen's research note also reported management's view that XPO can continue to expand market share and lift less-than-truckload - LTL - margins by more than 100 basis points in 2026 without relying on a macroeconomic rebound, driven instead by company-specific initiatives expected to yield stronger results that year. The analyst added that free cash flow generation in the current year should help accelerate deleveraging and offer greater financial flexibility.
In its analysis, TD Cowen underscored that XPO is differentiating itself from other LTL peers in the transportation sector, a point the firm sees as supportive of the equity's longer-term thesis.
Several other brokerages have updated their views on XPO recently, producing a range of recommendations and price targets:
- BofA Securities raised its price target to $209 from $160 and maintained a Buy rating, citing above-seasonal January results and ongoing operational improvements.
- Benchmark lifted its target to $165 from $150, pointing to a favorable long-term growth outlook while simultaneously trimming fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 estimates because volumes were below prior expectations.
- Deutsche Bank labeled XPO a Catalyst Call Buy Idea despite recent underperformance, while calling attention to risks around near-term earnings estimates.
- Evercore ISI downgraded the stock from Outperform to In Line and reduced its target to $148 from $151 amid volume concerns, though it noted a possible modest upside to fourth-quarter earnings per share.
- Wolfe Research moved XPO from Outperform to Peerperform, expressing a cautious stance on the LTL sector despite XPO's strong showing the prior year.
These varied analyst actions illustrate a spectrum of views on XPO's near-term volume trajectory and longer-term margin prospects, even as several firms cite operational improvements and stronger-than-expected seasonal activity as supportive factors. Market participants will likely monitor upcoming volume data, margin trends, and cash flow generation closely to assess whether the more optimistic forecasts can be realized.