Analyst Ratings February 24, 2026

TD Cowen Lifts Viper Energy Target as Production and Payout Outlook Brighten

Analyst nudges price objective to $55, citing Permian-driven organic oil growth and potential royalty tailwinds

By Nina Shah VNOM
TD Cowen Lifts Viper Energy Target as Production and Payout Outlook Brighten
VNOM

TD Cowen raised its price target on Viper Energy (VNOM) to $55 from $54 and kept a Buy rating, pointing to roughly 22% upside from the stock's current level. The firm sees about 5% year-over-year organic oil growth aided by Diamondback activity in the Permian Basin, expects a 6% dividend yield in 2026, and projects modest buybacks and rising royalty interests tied to newly drilled wells.

Key Points

  • TD Cowen raised its price target on Viper Energy to $55 from $54 and kept a Buy rating, implying roughly 22% upside from the stock's $44.96 trading level.
  • The firm expects about 5% year-over-year organic oil growth, supported by Diamondback’s Permian Basin activity, and notes a 9% free cash flow yield for 2026.
  • TD Cowen forecasts a 6% dividend yield in 2026 (3% base plus 3% variable) and anticipates share repurchases up to 3% of outstanding shares; Viper also completed a corporate reorganization and agreed to repurchase 1,000,000 OpCo Units for $40.65 million.

TD Cowen has adjusted its valuation on Viper Energy, increasing the price target to $55 from $54 while maintaining a Buy recommendation on the shares. At the time of the analyst note, the stock was trading at $44.96, leaving implied upside of about 22% to the updated target.

The research team projects roughly 5% year-over-year organic oil growth for Viper Energy, a forecast the firm attributes in part to Diamondback’s operating activity in the Permian Basin. TD Cowen also highlights a free cash flow profile that implies a 9% free cash flow yield for 2026.

Market momentum has been favorable in recent months: the shares are up 17% over the past six months and remain close to their 52-week high of $48.41.


Royalty interests and the market view

In its note, TD Cowen draws attention to an anticipated increase in royalty interest volume from newly drilled Diamondback wells in 2026 relative to 2025. The firm frames this as a potential source of incremental value that the broader market may not be fully pricing.

Dividends, buybacks and capital returns

The analyst projects that Viper Energy will deliver a combined 6% dividend yield in 2026, composed of a 3% base dividend plus a 3% variable dividend. For context, the company’s current dividend yield is reported at 2.22%.

TD Cowen further expects the company to repurchase up to 3% of its shares outstanding in 2026, a repurchase program the firm includes as part of its shareholder-return assumptions.


Corporate restructuring and unit repurchase

Viper Energy has completed an internal reorganization and entered into new agreements, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The reorganization converted each limited liability company interest of Viper Energy Partners LLC into an equivalent interest in a newly formed subsidiary, VNOM Holding Company LLC.

The restructuring was executed through an Omnibus Transaction Agreement that included mergers bringing entities such as Sitio Permian, LP, and Sitio Appalachia, LP into Viper Energy Partners LLC. These steps were presented as part of a broader set of corporate structuring initiatives.

Separately, Viper Energy announced an agreement to repurchase 1,000,000 OpCo Units from an affiliate of Kimmeridge Energy Management Company, LLC for $40.65 million. The repurchase values each OpCo Unit at $40.65, consistent with the last closing price of Viper’s Class A Common Stock on Nasdaq. In connection with this transaction, a corresponding number of shares of Viper’s Class B Common Stock owned by Kimmeridge will be canceled.

Company filings described these moves as components of ongoing strategic initiatives and corporate restructuring efforts.


Investment context

The combination of the modestly higher price target, the projected organic production growth tied to Permian activity, a material free cash flow yield for 2026, and expectations for dividends and limited buybacks form the basis for TD Cowen’s Buy stance. The firm singles out the potential increase in royalty interests from new Diamondback wells as an element it believes could be underappreciated by the market.

Investors weighing Viper Energy should consider the company’s evolving capital-return profile and the implications of the corporate reorganization and unit repurchase announced in the SEC filing.

Risks

  • The projected 6% dividend yield and expected 3% buyback in 2026 are analyst forecasts and may not materialize exactly as forecasted - this affects income-focused investors and equity markets.
  • TD Cowen’s view that royalty interest increases from newly drilled Diamondback wells may be underappreciated suggests potential pricing risk if the market already has incorporated those volumes - this impacts energy sector valuations.
  • Corporate restructuring and the OpCo Unit repurchase depend on executed agreements and cancellations; execution risk and the ultimate effect on capital structure remain relevant to stakeholders in the energy and financial markets.

More from Analyst Ratings

HSBC trims Nvidia price target to $310, keeps Buy as growth outlook holds Feb 24, 2026 Needham Trims EverQuote Price Target After Softer Q1 Guidance; Buy Rating Stands Feb 24, 2026 Needham Lowers Backblaze Price Target as Software Multiples Compress Feb 24, 2026 FBN Securities Starts Coverage of SailPoint With Outperform, Sees Upside From Identity Platform Feb 24, 2026 Needham Lifts Vir Biotechnology Price Target After Promising Phase 1 VIR-5500 Data Feb 24, 2026