TD Cowen has increased its price target on Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) to $17.00 from $13.00, while maintaining a Hold recommendation on the electric-vehicle maker's shares. The move follows a series of company updates and quarterly results that analysts described as more constructive than many had feared.
Rivian shares were trading at $16.76, up from a prior close of $14.76, a shift that the firm characterized as a justified market response to the company's announcements. The automaker's market capitalization stands at $17.16 billion.
Analyst rationale
In its research note, TD Cowen called the firm's recent announcements "an encouraging outcome against a backdrop of recent sentiment weakness" and said the "positive stock reaction justified." The firm highlighted Rivian's guidance for 2026 as largely in line with consensus expectations and, in some respects, better than feared amid concerns about EV demand and potential cannibalization from the R1 model.
TD Cowen described auto gross margins as "encouraging," a notable comment given the company's current gross profit margin of 3.32% as reported by InvestingPro. The analyst house also signaled that 2026 could be a breakout year for Rivian, although it expects the improvement to be weighted toward the second half of that year.
Market and valuation context
Despite the increased price target, TD Cowen kept its Hold rating, reflecting a "constructive fundamental bias" rather than a full endorsement to buy. InvestingPro analysis indicates that the stock is trading above its Fair Value and that analyst targets for Rivian span a wide range, from $10 to $25. In addition, InvestingPro reports that Rivian currently holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
Quarterly performance and peer reactions
Rivian's fourth-quarter 2025 results beat expectations with a narrower-than-anticipated loss and revenue that topped forecasts. The company reported earnings per share of -$0.70 versus a forecast of -$0.71, and revenue of $1.29 billion compared with an expected $1.27 billion, producing positive surprises on both measures.
The stronger margin profile also prompted other firms to adjust views. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $18.00 from $15.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating after Rivian reported a 9% gross margin versus a consensus estimate of 2%. Deutsche Bank upgraded Rivian from Hold to Buy and lifted its target to $23.00 from $16.00, pointing to a more secure 2026 outlook driven by reasonable volume expectations and improving vehicle costs.
Rivian's upcoming R2 model launch is reportedly on track for the second quarter, which analysts say contributes to the more optimistic outlook.
Outlook and takeaways
Analysts now view Rivian's trajectory more favorably than in recent months, with multiple firms revising targets and expectations after the quarter and margin improvements. Nonetheless, the company faces questions tied to market sentiment, potential model cannibalization, and the timing of operational improvements, with some expected gains concentrated in the latter half of 2026. The stock's current trading level relative to Fair Value also frames investors' decisions amid diverging analyst targets.