TD Cowen raised its price target on Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) to $65.00 from $62.00 and kept a Buy rating on the snack maker's shares, which are trading at $59.29. InvestingPro data cited alongside the announcement suggests only modest upside from current levels and assesses the company as fairly valued under its comprehensive Fair Value framework.
The firms target adjustment comes on the heels of Mondelez issuing 2026 guidance that calls for organic sales growth of 0-2%, a pace below consensus expectations. Management flagged potential pricing pressure from chocolate competitors and continued volume declines in North America as factors underlying the conservative top-line outlook. TD Cowen described the guidance as both "disappointing" and "conservative," indicating the company may be setting achievable near-term goals that could allow for upside versus expectations.
For 2026, Mondelez is also forecasting earnings per share growth of 0-5%, a range that incorporates sizable planned reinvestment in the business. That reinvestment is an explicit factor in the EPS guidance and reflects the company's cautious stance on short-term profitability as it allocates resources toward the business.
InvestingPro data referenced in conjunction with the coverage notes that six analysts have lowered their earnings estimates for the coming period, and that net income is expected to decline this year. The combination of downgraded near-term forecasts and conservative guidance shaped the mixed analyst response following the companys outlook.
TD Cowen also signaled optimism on a longer timeline, suggesting Mondelez appears positioned for a stronger 2027 when cocoa costs are expected to fully reset lower. That commodity cost dynamic is highlighted as a potential tailwind for margins and profitability beyond the immediate planning horizon.
Analyst reactions and recent results
Mondelez reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat analysts' forecasts, delivering EPS of $0.72 versus an expected $0.70 and revenue of $10.5 billion versus a forecast of $10.31 billion. Despite the beat, strategists across the sell-side adjusted targets and estimates.
- Piper Sandler raised its price target from $62 to $64 while maintaining a Neutral rating and cut EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027.
- Bernstein reduced its price target to $75 from $84 and kept an Outperform rating, citing a guarded view for 2026.
- Stifel lowered its target to $68 from $70 but retained a Buy rating, noting Mondelezs 5.1% organic revenue growth and EPS performance above its estimates.
These varied responses underscore differing interpretations of the company's recent financial performance and the implications of its 2026 guidance for near-term earnings trajectories.
Valuation and market context
While some analysts nudged price targets higher, InvestingPro's assessment that Mondelez is fairly valued points to limited upside from prevailing prices. The combination of conservative guidance, planned reinvestment, and external cost dynamics frames the investment case as one where near-term caution may be balanced by a potential improvement in 2027 if cocoa costs ease as anticipated.
Note: Information in this report is drawn from company guidance, analyst commentary and InvestingPro data as presented.