TD Cowen announced on Friday that it has increased its price target for JFrog (NASDAQ:FROG) to $80.00, up from $75.00, while retaining a Buy rating on the software company's shares. The new target indicates meaningful upside from JFrog's current trading price of $53 and reflects a market capitalization of about $6.4 billion for the company.
The revision comes after JFrog reported cloud revenue growth of 42%, well above the Street expectation of 32%, a performance TD Cowen attributed to stronger customer commitments and an expanded security product mix. The firm highlighted JFrog's overall revenue rising 22.7% and an impressive gross profit margin of 76.2% as supporting metrics for the more bullish target.
Security has become a larger component of JFrog's business, now accounting for 10% of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and 16% of Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), representing substantial year-over-year growth. TD Cowen noted that this increase in security revenue was partly aided by the npm attack, which helped elevate security demand.
Other customer health indicators cited by TD Cowen include a 100 basis point improvement in Net Revenue Retention (NRR) to 119% and a 40% expansion in RPO, with the firm observing accelerating RPO-related bookings. These trends factored into TD Cowen's view of JFrog's forward momentum.
Looking ahead, TD Cowen pointed to JFrog's fiscal year 2026 guidance as another reason for the revised target. The company is guiding fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 17%-18%, and it expects cloud revenue to grow 30%-32%. Both figures exceed Street consensus expectations of 17% for overall revenue and 27% for cloud revenue, and TD Cowen characterized JFrog's own guidance as conservative.
In separate company results, JFrog reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that beat analyst forecasts. The company posted earnings per share of $0.22, compared with an expected $0.19, and revenue of $145.3 million, above the estimate of $138.09 million.
Following the quarterly report, Truist Securities reiterated its Buy rating on JFrog and kept its price target at $70.00. Truist cited what it described as a "solid FY25 finish," pointing to strong cloud revenue, steady contributions from security offerings, and improving enterprise sales momentum as rationale for maintaining its stance.
These analyst moves reflect continued investor focus on JFrog's cloud expansion, margin profile and the emerging role of security in its recurring revenue mix. The company’s guidance and recent quarterly beats provide the immediate backdrop for updated analyst valuations and recommendations.