TD Cowen has increased its one-year price target for Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (NYSE: HASI) to $50, up from $40, and has maintained a Buy recommendation on the shares. The firm’s revised valuation is built around 14 times its 2028 adjusted earnings per share estimate and 29 times its 2028 dividend estimate, with the target assuming a 3.4% dividend yield on the fiscal 2028 dividend estimate.
HASI shares were trading at $39.69, just below their 52-week high of $39.80, at the time of the note. The stock has delivered a total return of 47.48% over the past six months, according to the figures cited by the analyst.
TD Cowen noted in its update that it revised its model after reviewing the company’s latest 10-K filing. The firm pointed to improvements in capital efficiency and to closed transactions as reasons for increased confidence in the company’s ability to execute on its strategy. One specific source of recurring cash generation called out by Cowen is distributions now being received from CCH1, which the analyst expects to continue supporting cash flow.
On the dividend front, the stock currently yields 4.28% based on a $1.70 per share dividend. InvestingPro data highlighted in the analyst note indicates that HASI has paid dividends for 14 consecutive years, including seven straight years of dividend increases.
TD Cowen also discussed the challenge of defining a direct peer set for Hannon Armstrong, describing the company as the only U.S.-based, publicly traded, pure-play firm focused on clean energy project financing. As a result, Cowen said share performance often tracks the broader renewables group rather than a narrowly defined peer group. For context, the analyst referenced NextEra Energy and Clearway Energy as comparable points of reference. At the time of the note, those companies were trading at roughly 20 times and 27 times 2028 consensus earnings per share estimates, respectively, and at approximately 34 times and 20 times 2028 dividend per share estimates, respectively.
In separate company-specific reporting, Hannon Armstrong posted fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat consensus expectations on both the bottom line and revenue. The company reported earnings per share of $0.67 versus the $0.66 forecast, and revenue of $114.81 million compared with an expected $104.26 million. Despite these upside surprises, Hannon Armstrong’s stock fell in after-hours trading, a response the analyst note attributed to potential market dynamics or shifts in investor sentiment.
TD Cowen’s revised target and model adjustments reflect explicit inputs from the company’s filings and transaction progress, and the firm continues to view dividend distributions and improving capital efficiency as material drivers of HASI’s cash generation profile. Analysts cited by the InvestingPro notes included with the coverage expect net income growth this year and anticipate sales growth in the current year, consistent with the broader themes in Cowen’s update.
Further reading and in-depth financial analysis - TD Cowen directed readers to the firm’s Pro Research Report for more detailed examination of Hannon Armstrong’s financials and growth outlook.