TD Cowen has increased its price objective on Freshpet (FRPT) to $80.00 from $61.00 while leaving its recommendation at Hold. The research note highlights growing investor enthusiasm even as management issued a 2026 EBITDA guide that came in below consensus expectations.
Freshpet shares have climbed sharply in recent periods - up 9.6% over the past week and 25% over the last six months - and were last trading at $78.58, giving the company a market capitalization of $3.85 billion. An independent Fair Value assessment cited in analyst commentary indicates the stock may be trading below its intrinsic value.
TD Cowen said it understands why investors are responding positively, pointing to a potential inflection in retail growth trends, faster development of omni-channel distribution, and recent manufacturing improvements. The firm characterizes the company-provided sales guidance of 7-10% as conservative.
On valuation, TD Cowen noted Freshpet is trading at 16.7 times its 2027 EBITDA estimate, which the firm regards as roughly fair value. Additional market multiples reported for the company include a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.64 and an enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple of 22.13.
The company’s most recent quarterly report showed a mixed set of results: an earnings beat on the bottom line but a narrow miss on revenue versus expectations. Commentaries on the quarter stress that revenue performance fell short of analyst projections.
In a separate analyst action, Morgan Stanley upgraded Freshpet from Equalweight to Overweight and raised its price target from $71.00 to $90.00. Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Serotta signaled optimism about the company’s growth trajectory, suggesting that topline growth is expected to re-accelerate in 2026. The firm also described Freshpet’s fiscal 2026 guidance for net sales growth of 7-10% as conservative when compared with the 9.1% consensus.
Taken together, these developments highlight a divergence of views across the market: some analysts and investors are encouraged by operational momentum and upgraded targets, while the company’s own near-term EBITDA guidance and recent revenue results temper expectations.
What this means for markets
- Freshpet’s share movement and revised targets are drawing attention from growth and consumer discretionary investors focused on premium pet food brands.
- Valuation metrics point to a stock that some analysts view as fairly valued on forward EBITDA while other assessments see upside versus Fair Value estimates.
- Analyst upgrades and revised targets may influence sentiment across equities that serve retail, omni-channel distribution, and consumer-packaged-goods supply chains.
Bottom line
TD Cowen’s price-target raise to $80, paired with Morgan Stanley’s upgrade and higher target, reflects growing optimism about Freshpet’s retail and operational progress despite mixed quarterly results and guidance that some firms view as conservative. Investors and observers will be watching topline momentum and 2026 execution closely.