TD Cowen has raised its price target on CAVA Group Inc. to $90 from $85, while reaffirming a Buy rating on the shares. The upgrade reflects the brokerage's assessment of CAVA's 2026 guidance, which the analyst firm said came in ahead of expectations at a range of 3% to 5% for a management team noted for a conservative posture.
In its note, TD Cowen highlighted that CAVA met investor expectations and executed strategic measures aimed at maintaining first-quarter quarter-to-date performance above 5% as the company cycles into easier comparisons. The analyst firm also reiterated CAVA as its number two top pick within its coverage universe.
Market performance and valuation remain mixed in TD Cowen's view. The shares have climbed 15.5% year-to-date and the company trades with a market capitalization of $7.86 billion. Separately, InvestingPro analysis referenced by market observers suggests the stock is currently trading above its Fair Value estimate, indicating valuation is a factor for prospective investors.
TD Cowen noted that the guidance for 2026 incorporates a larger - though not quantified - headwind tied to new store maturation when compared with the impact on same-store sales in 2025. That element of the outlook could temper near-term comparable-store sales growth as newly opened locations pass through their early ramp-up phases.
The analyst firm's reaction follows CAVA's fourth-quarter results, which surpassed consensus estimates. For the quarter the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.04, above the analyst consensus of $0.00. Quarterly revenue reached $275.0 million, well ahead of the $228.3 million forecast and representing a 21.2% increase from the prior-year quarter.
Same-restaurant sales rose modestly by 0.5% in the quarter. Management attributed that increase to a 1.9% benefit from menu price and product mix, partially offset by a 1.4% decline in guest traffic.
Adding to the chorus of bullish analyst sentiment, Telsey Advisory Group raised its price target on CAVA to $88 from $85 and kept an Outperform rating. Telsey pointed to robust near-term trends and a favorable long-term outlook, citing CAVA's expansion ambitions as a core element of that view. The company has a stated plan to grow to over 1,000 restaurants by 2032, up from 439 locations expected in 2025, a scale-up that underpins the firm's outlook.
Together, the guidance beat, quarterly results and reiterated analyst convictions underscore continued momentum in CAVA's growth story within the fast-casual dining segment. Analysts and investors will continue to weigh the benefits of top-line expansion and price/mix improvements against evolving traffic trends, the maturation drag from new restaurants and current valuation levels.